2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup Preview: Can Canada redeem itself after a poor 2023 tournament? And is this Pochettino’s last chance to redeem himself for the USMNT?

At the same time as the Club World Cup takes place in the Eastern United States, the CONCACAF Gold Cup, North America’s continental tournament, is set to gear up for its next edition. After Jesse Marsch’s first year at the helm, is Canada the favourite to win it all? Or can the United States finally find some form under legendary manager Mauricio Pochettino?

Like with my Club World Cup preview, I will be breaking down and predicting each of the four groups individually, before I provide a prediction of the knockout bracket and the final. 

Let’s get into it. 

Group A: Mexico, Costa Rica, Suriname, Dominican Republic

The Mexican national team comes into this tournament off of the heels of winning the CONCACAF Nations League, while also losing to Switzerland in a friendly. The big question for Mexico is if they can carry the confidence from their Nations League title into a defence of their Gold Cup title. Considering that many of the players from those two titles, including Raúl Jimenez, are on the squad for the Gold Cup, Mexico should be able to kick off their title defence with style.

For Costa Rica, one can look to their recent performances in World Cup qualifying for an indicator of how they may fare in this group. In their second round qualifying group, with one match left to play (as of this writing) Costa Rica has qualified for the third round of play in continental qualifying, securing their place with an 8-0 win over the Bahamas on June 7th. The Costa Rica team therefore has something to build off of heading into the tournament, which should make them favourites for one of the knockout spots over the likes of Suriname and the Dominican Republic. 

Like Costa Rica, Suriname also secured their place in the third round of continental World Cup qualifying as a result of a 1-0 win over Puerto Rico. The team is also coming into the tournament having beaten Martinique 2-0 on aggregate over two legs, so having the confidence from their qualifying playoff will help. As for the Dominican Republic, they recently got eliminated from World Cup qualifying as a result of a 4-2 loss to Guatemala. Regardless of the result of their final Round 2 game against Dominica, they will have to try and shrug off missing the World Cup quickly if they are to have a chance at advancing in their first ever Gold Cup appearance.

While Costa Rica will keep pace with Mexico, the Mexican national team should just win Group A, with Costa Rica coming in second. Elsewhere, in following up a strong World Cup qualifying performance, Suriname will have a competitive group stage; while they will miss out on the knockouts, Suriname’s efforts will be rewarded with a win on the final matchday over the Dominican Republic.

Group A predicted finish: 

1. Mexico (9 points)

2. Costa Rica (6 points)

3. Suriname (3 points)

4. Dominican Republic (0 points)

Group B: Canada, Honduras, El Salvador, Curaçao

While Canada should be seen as the favourite to win this group, that label should be given with caution. 

In the last edition of the Gold Cup, despite being in a group with Guatemala, Guadeloupe, and Cuba, Canada drew their first two matches to Guadeloupe and Guatemala, before salvaging their tournament hopes with a 4-2 win over Cuba. But with Jesse Marsch at the helm, Canada has a 6-4-5 record (wins-draw-losses, does not consider matches won in penalties) since the American took charge. And with Canada now 30th in the FIFA world rankings as of April 3rd, it is clear the managerial change has made a difference in the Canadian team’s fortunes. 

Whether Jesse Marsch can keep things going in the Gold Cup is another story. To do so, he will have to first contend with the likes of Honduras, El Salvador, and Curaçao. For Honduras, their hopes of advancing to the knockouts stem from their qualification for the third round of continental qualifying for next year’s World Cup, coming as a result of a 1-0 win over the Cayman Islands. Honduras also suffered a last-matchday elimination from the knockouts in the last edition of the Gold Cup; despite beating Haiti 2-1, a 1-0 win for Qatar was enough to see Qatar into the knockouts over Honduras on goal difference. That sting, alongside the confidence that will come from advancing in World Cup qualifying, should give Honduras the ability to challenge for a spot in the Gold Cup knockouts. 

As for El Salvador, like Honduras, they also suffered a last-matchday elimination in the group stage of the 2023 Gold Cup. While they fell a goal short of potentially qualifying, their shortcomings were only worsened as Costa Rica snatched the final spot via a 6-4 win over Martinique. The heartbreak could only worsen for El Salvador; as of this writing (June 8), El Salvador could still miss out on advancing in World Cup qualifying should they lose to Suriname and should Puerto Rico win their game against Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. 

Finally, Curaçao will look to make an impact after qualifying for their first Gold Cup since 2019. However, their efforts should be helped as a result of their qualification for the third round of continental qualifying for the World Cup, with their place in the next round being secured as a result of their 4-0 win over Saint Lucia. That should give them some confidence in this group stage, but they are likely to find themselves as the fourth best team in this group. 

The CONCACAF Gold Cup will be a test of how far the Canadian national team has come under Jesse Marsch. And with a home World Cup coming next June, the onus is on Canada to demonstrate their growth and experience since last year, and I think the team will respond by winning their group. It may take a little too much effort, but they should come first in the group. As for second place, I am going to go with an upset and predict that Curaçao will claim the final spot. While the hunger will be there for Honduras and El Salvador as they look to redeem themselves from their shortcomings in the last edition of the Gold Cup, Curaçao’s last Gold Cup appearance saw them into the knockout stages. All Curaçao needs to do is match Honduras and El Salvador’s output from their first two games and then anything can happen, especially as Curaçao plays Honduras on the final matchday. 

Predicted Group B finish: 

1. Canada (9 points)

2. Curaçao (4 points)

3. Honduras (4 points)

4. El Salvador (0 points)

Group C: Panama, Jamaica, Guatemala, Guadeloupe

Panama comes into this tournament with a little more momentum, however. This is because Panama is coming off of an appearance in the CONCACAF Nations League Final, in addition to securing a third round berth for World Cup qualifying. And with Panama looking to secure a return trip to the World Cup after missing it in 2022, a strong performance in the CONCACAF Gold Cup could do wonders for the team going forward. 

Like Panama, Jamaica also secured its own third round berth after defeating the British Virgin Islands by a 1-0 scoreline. In addition, Jamaica had to win a two-legged playoff to get into the tournament, successfully earning a 4-1 aggregate scoreline after being deadlocked with Saint Vincent and the Grenadines heading into the second leg. It remains to be seen how Jamaica will perform against Guatemala in the final second round matchday, however, they are unbeaten in five of their last six games heading into the Gold Cup. And not having to play Panama until the final matchday should allow for Jamaica to put its best foot forward early and secure qualification to the knockouts, allowing for the team to focus on potentially winning the group. 

While Panama and Jamaica may be the favourites to advance, I would not be counting Guadeloupe out just yet. In the last edition of the Gold Cup, Guadeloupe scored two massive upsets in their group - a 2-2 draw with Canada and a 4-1 win over Cuba. They did fall just short of the knockouts, however, losing their final group game to Guatemala 3-2 and seeing their advantage for second disappear in Canada’s favour after the Canadian team beat Cuba 4-2. Guadeloupe will be coming into this edition of the Gold Cup not only looking for revenge, but also with confidence after their run in the last tournament. 

Guatemala will also be coming into the Gold Cup with some confidence as well. Regardless of the result of their June 10th friendly against Jamaica, they will have the chance to get back at them in the first group stage game only six days later. Should Guatemala get favourable results in both fixtures, that could be a strong foundation for the team to build off of as they take on Panama in the next matchday and then play a rematch of last year’s Gold Cup group stage match against Guadeloupe, which saw Guatemala dispatch Guadeloupe’s hopes of getting to the knockouts. 

This group is arguably this Gold Cup’s Group of Death. Considering the argumentation I just outlined, any one of these four sides could mount a realistic challenge for one of the two spots in the knockout stage. I am actually going to start my prediction of the group standings with a bold take; one of Panama and Jamaica will not make it to the knockouts. 

Why? Not only does Jamaica have to worry about back-to-back games with Guatemala, but considering that Guadeloupe got oh-so-close to the last edition’s knockout stage, they have a decent chance in all of their group games. Whether Guadeloupe and/or Guatemala has a chance in their group will come down to their Matchday 3 encounter, a rematch of their Matchday 3 game in the 2023 Gold Cup. But should either team score at least a point in their opening two games, then that Matchday 3 rematch could very well determine how the group shakes out. 

I think Panama does have the slightly-more-doable path to the knockouts, so I am going to put them in first in this group. At the same time, they won’t get that many points, so they will only barely get into first. As for second, I am actually going to go with Guadeloupe to earn the last knockout place. While Jamaica has the better odds of doing so simply when looking at the FIFA rankings, I think Guadeloupe is coming into this tournament with a bit of an itch to scratch. They’ll have the chance to scratch that itch when they play their rematch against Guatemala, who will also get off to a strong start but will fall just short to Guadeloupe. 

Predicted Group C finish: 

1. Panama (5 points)

2. Guadeloupe (4 points)

3. Guatemala (4 points)

4. Jamaica (2 points)

Group D: United States, Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago, Saudi Arabia

This is a do-or-die tournament for the United States. While they are (kind of) the host country and one of the favourites to win the Gold Cup, they haven’t had the desired success since Mauricio Pochettino was appointed the USMNT’s new manager. While he has won five matches since his debut on October 12, a 2-0 win against Panama, he did lose both the CONCACAF Nations League semifinal in a 1-0 decision to Panama and the third place match against Canada in a 2-1 scoreline. With recent results not going the USMNT’s way, it seems like the United States could become the third-best country out of CONCACAF’s top teams. Unless the USMNT goes on a run in this tournament, it seems like that outcome and an early exit at the World Cup next year is on the cards. 

That being said, their toughest group stage opponent is Saudi Arabia, the Gold Cup’s guest participant for this edition. With a place in at least the next round of Asian World Cup qualifying secured, Saudi Arabia will be looking to get their confidence going ahead of either a fourth-qualifying round or ahead of the World Cup in June (as of this writing they could still qualify directly but it is likely they are destined for the fourth round of their continental qualifying). 

Outside of those two countries, Trinidad and Tobago will look to build off a likely third round qualification for continental World Cup qualifying, as well as qualification for the Gold Cup via a two-legged playoff. As well, Haiti will be looking to build off of their own strong qualifying performance, earning a spot in the third round of World Cup qualifying through a 5-0 win over Aruba. 

As I said, this is a do-or-die tournament for the United States; failure to go on a run in this tournament could be bad news for any hope at the World Cup next year. While they won’t finish first in the group - that will go to Saudi Arabia, they will dominate the rest of the group stage and avoid embarrassment on home soil. 

Projected Group D finish: 

1. Saudi Arabia (9 points)

2. United States (6 points)

3. Haiti (1 point)

4. Trinidad and Tobago (1 point)

Knockout stage format (seeding courtesy of CONCACAF’s website):

QF1: Winner Group D vs runner-up Group A

QF2: Winner Group B vs runner-up Group C

QF3: Winner Group C vs runner-up Group B

QF4: Winner Group A vs runner-up Group D

Semifinals: winner of QF1 vs winner of QF2, winner of QF3 vs winner of QF4

Final: winners of two semifinals

Quarterfinals predictions: 

Saudi Arabia (winner Group D) vs Costa Rica (runner-up Group A)

While Costa Rica is the more experienced CONCACAF side, I am going to back the overall strength of the Saudi Arabian side to advance to the quarterfinal. 

The pick: Saudi Arabia 3, Costa Rica 1.

Canada (winner Group B) vs Guadeloupe (runner-up Group C)

This quarterfinal tie is, in fact, a rematch of the opening group stage match from the 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup, which saw Guadeloupe earn a draw against Canada. While Guadeloupe should continue to put up a fight, this is a far better Canadian team, and I think they will ultimately get the best of Guadeloupe. 

The pick: Canada 4, Guadeloupe 1

Panama (winner Group C) vs Curaçao (runner-up Group B)

To this stage, Curaçao will be on yet another strong run in the Gold Cup, but like in 2019, it ends in the quarterfinals to a far better Panama side. 

The pick: Panama 3, Curaçao 0

Mexico (winner Group A) vs United States (runner-up Group D)

So in a do-or-die tournament, the United States will end up playing Mexico in the quarterfinals? The good news is that the United States comes into this potential quarterfinal unbeaten in seven of the last eight matchups. I cannot see how the United States beats Mexico, particularly with the run of form that they are on. They could always win it, and I do see this going to extra time, but I think Mexico prevails. 

The pick: Mexico 3, United States 2

Semifinal predictions: 

Canada vs Saudi Arabia:

This match is a perfect opportunity for the Canadian team to get ready for hosting the World Cup. I think they take the challenge and continue their run in this tournament into the final. 

The pick: Canada 3, Saudi Arabia 1

Panama vs Mexico:

A rematch of the last Gold Cup Final, I see this one being a close affair once again. While Panama will look to get past Mexico, I do see the Mexican side just holding on for the win. 

The pick: Mexico 2, Panama 1

Final prediction: 

Canada vs Mexico:

Another big test for Canada ahead of the World Cup comes against a Mexican side that has won nine Gold Cups and has plenty of big-game experience. Canada has come a long way in the year since Jesse Marsch became the manager of the Canadian mens team; with a complete team effort in the final, I think Canada can and will get it done against Mexico, winning their first championship since 2000. 

The pick: Canada 2, Mexico 1

Article written by Noah Guttman