2025 NFL Divisional Previews: AFC West

After an extremely successful 2025, can Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos end the Kansas City Chiefs’ reign in the AFC West? Or will the Las Vegas Raiders, led by former Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, his former quarterback Geno Smith, and minority owner Tom Brady, take the division by surprise? 

The record for the most consecutive division titles is 11, set by the New England Patriots.

Kansas City, who won the AFC West by four games last season, is currently at nine straight and could hit ten if they win it this season. 

But will their quest to make more history end at the hands of a much-improved division? Or will they find a way to grind it out like they did for much of last season?

Denver Broncos:

2024 finish: 10-7, 3rd in AFC West, lost to the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Wild Card Round

In my opinion, this is the year Kansas City’s hold on the AFC West is broken.

Three reasons for this.

Firstly, Denver reinforced what was a very strong defence over the offseason. Despite the loss of linebackers Cody Barton and Zach Cunningham, the Broncos front office brought in two 49ers defenders - linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga, both of whom played key roles in several deep playoff runs. They also got defensive end Zach Allen to sign a contract extension to keep him in the Mile High City for the next four seasons.

The Broncos also added offensive role players like tight end Evan Engram and running back J.K. Dobbins, while signing standout wide receiver Courtland Sutton to a contract extension. 

The next big reason is their schedule. Six of Denver’s first eight games are against non-playoff teams from last season, with four of them expected to come against non-playoff contenders. This is especially true for Denver’s first two games, with both Tennessee and Indianapolis expected to finish well outside the playoff picture. 

In addition, despite getting almost all of such games at home, the Kansas City Chiefs have to play five of their first nine games against teams that are either Super Bowl contenders or those that are right on the fringes of it. But really, outside of the New York Giants, I do not see how Kansas City gets through their first nine games undefeated or close-to-undefeated. 

More on the Chiefs later. 

Finally, the big-game experience for Sean Payton’s young roster (25.67 years is the average age of this Broncos team) will prove to be important as Denver looks to contend for the division title. This experience came as a result of last season’s success; Denver successfully made the playoffs for the first time since 2015, holding off surging Bengals and Dolphins teams in addition to a surprisingly good Indianapolis Colts squad making (almost) the most of quarterback Joe Flacco’s leadership. 

If Denver can get off to at least a 5-3 start (preferably 6-2), and beat the Chiefs on November 16th, then Denver could put themselves in a position to take the AFC West. It may just come down to the Christmas Day rematch with Kansas City, but I see Denver barely dethroning Kansas City and taking the AFC West crown. 

Projected finish: 14-3, 1st in AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs:

2024 finish: 15-2, 1st in AFC West, lost in the Super Bowl to the Philadelphia Eagles

Are the Chiefs fraudulent?

While that will be a highly-debated question throughout this NFL season, the statistics do show that Kansas City maybe isn’t playing to the standard set by their 2018, 2019, and 2020 seasons. 

Super Bowl blowouts aside, their point differential in the 2024 regular season was 59. When considered over the course of a seventeen-game season, this means that the Chiefs were winning games by just over three points per game. 

I will say that the defence was very good throughout last season. But the team’s Super Bowl performance proved that if they’re going to be true top dogs once again, they need to put together a strong season on the offensive side of the ball. 

Losing depth pieces like Mecole Hardman, DeAndre Hopkins, and Samaje Perine will do them no favours. And losing Joe Thuney in a trade to Chicago certainly won’t help protect Patrick Mahomes when in the pocket. 

That said, the addition of pieces like running back Elijah Mitchell from Kansas City should help the offence find its flow. 

Undoubtedly, Kansas City should find themselves in Super Bowl contention. However, unlike the Broncos, they do play several Super Bowl and playoff contenders before their Week 10 bye. After opening the season in Brazil against the LA Chargers, the Chiefs return to Kansas City to take on Philadelphia in a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl. And after taking on the Giants in Week 3, the Chiefs play seven contenders in rapid succession. The stretch starts against Baltimore, who will be looking to get back to the AFC Championship game after falling a catch short of overtime in last season’s Divisional Round against Buffalo. They then play Jacksonville, Detroit, and Las Vegas, who will all be looking to get back to the playoffs in some form. They then host Washington before heading to Buffalo to take on the Bills and then playing a crucial game against Denver that could decide the direction of the division.

While Kansas City plays all but three of those games at home, there’s no guarantee they will win every single game in the same fashion they did last year. Sure, the defence could carry the Chiefs to victory, but I think there will be games in that stretch where they can’t get the win.

Like I said before, the Chiefs will be Super Bowl contenders one way or the other. But unless the offence plays up to its potential throughout 2025, then expect a drop from last season’s performance. 

I see the Chiefs earning another double-digit win season, but losing the AFC West crown against a quick-to-start Denver Broncos team. 

Projected finish: 11-6, 2nd in AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers:

2024 finish: 11-6, 2nd in AFC West, lost in the Wild Card Round to the Houston Texans

The first season of Jim Harbaugh’s tenure as the Chargers' head coach was a relative success. 

Despite losing in brutal fashion in the playoffs, the Chargers were able to improve significantly on their 2023 record, gaining six wins from that season to the next.

But the second season is only going to be tougher. 

Among their offseason losses, not only did the Chargers lose star defensive end Joey Bosa and wide receiver Josh Palmer to Buffalo, but they also lost running back J.K. Dobbins to Denver.  

The Chargers did a good job filling the holes left by those departures, signing Najee Harris and Nyheim Hynes to replenish the hole at running back, while adding Benjamin St-Juste and Donte Jackson helped to reinforce the cornerback position.

Even with the roster changeup, the toughest part of the Chargers' season is going to be the travel. Yes, I know they play a game in Brazil, but even then, the Chargers have to travel more than 35,000 miles throughout the season. 

A favourable early-to-midseason stretch, which sees Los Angeles play the New York Giants, Washington, Miami, Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Minnesota, could help to repair any early damage suffered as a result of a travel-heavy first three weeks of the season. Going 5-1 in that stretch of games could put Los Angeles well above the .500 mark before a critical game against Pittsburgh to start November. 

That game actually kicks off a nightmare six-game stretch to close the season. Playing playoff hopefuls in the form of Jacksonville and Las Vegas will immediately follow the Pittsburgh game, with a game against the Eagles kicking off in December. Their bye week will be sandwiched into that stretch, which is followed up by games against Kansas City, Dallas, Houston, and Denver. 

Even if the Chargers can get to around 6-3 by the end of October, I cannot see them winning more than a handful of games to close the season. Jim Harbaugh will succeed at getting Los Angeles to another winning record, but only barely doing so. 

Projected finish: 9-8, 3rd in AFC West

Las Vegas Raiders:

2024 finish: 4-13, 4th in AFC West

After a 4-13 2024 season followed an 8-9 2023 that saw Las Vegas fall just short of the playoffs, major change was made within the Raiders organisation following the disappointment. 

Antonio Pierce was out as head coach, and in came legendary former Seattle Seahawks boss Pete Carroll, who won a Super Bowl with Seattle in 2014.

He brought along former Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith, who helped lead Seattle to winning records in each of his three seasons, which earned the team a playoff spot in 2022 and put them just short of the division title in 2024. 

You know what else came in the door? Reinforcements. 

Alex Cappa came in from Cincinnati to reinforce the offensive line, while linebackers Germaine Pratt and Devin White signed deals to help the defensive side of the Raiders’ game plan. 

The Raiders also drafted standout running back Ashton Jeanty; his presence will greatly help a Las Vegas offence that was ranked near the bottom of the league in most major categories. 

While the Raiders should be better than last year, whether they make the playoffs depends on whether they are able to capitalise on their schedule and win key divisional matchups. After playing the Patriots in Week 1, Las Vegas takes on division rivals Los Angeles in a key AFC West matchup. With LA expected to be contenders in the AFC playoff picture, the Raiders will need to win at least one divisional matchup early in the season to put themselves in the best position possible. Their next chance at doing so will come against Kansas City in Week 7; this follows a doable stretch of games against Chicago, Tennessee, and Indianapolis. Then, after playing Denver three weeks later, they play both Dallas and Cleveland before taking on the LA Chargers in the second of two annual matchups. Taking advantage of their early schedule will set Las Vegas up well for an end-of-season run that sees them take on both Philadelphia and Kansas City as part of such a four-week stretch. 

In his eighteen seasons as an NFL head coach, Pete Carroll has finished below .500 just four times. And in the Raiders’ first eleven games, they play non-playoff teams from 2024 in seven of those games. With three games against the AFC West put into that stretch, going at least 6-5 in that stretch could set Las Vegas up well for a final push for the playoffs. They will end up falling just short, but I see the Raiders finishing with a winning record for the first time since 2021. 

Projected finish: 9-8, 4th in AFC West

Projected AFC West standings:

1. Denver Broncos (14-3)

2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)

3. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8)

4. Las Vegas Raiders (9-8)

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Article written by Noah Guttman