A Projection of Every Team’s Final Record, the Argos Future, and Some Week 12 picks

With every team past the halfway mark in their schedules, let’s try and predict their final records, while also providing some insight into the Argos’ dismal season and, more immediately, Week 12 of the CFL season. 

(Image Credit to Steven Chang/B.C. Lions)

Concluding my midseason recap - final record projections for each team:

BC Lions:

Current record: 5-5 (as of the end of Week 11)

Remaining games: at Toronto, at Ottawa, vs Ottawa, at Calgary, vs Toronto, vs Calgary, vs Edmonton, at Saskatchewan

Despite the 1-3 start, Lions head coach Buck Pierce has done well to prove that the start was mainly due to Nathan Rourke being injured from Week 2 to Week 4. Having won four of the next six games, the BC Lions find themselves with a very favourable second-half slate; four of the final eight games come against Toronto and Ottawa, while BC will have two chances to close the gap on the Calgary Stampeders. 

From what I’ve seen, the offence is good enough to score 30 points on any given night, but the defence does need to step it up just a little bit more. I say BC goes 3-1 against Toronto and Ottawa, while splitting the Calgary series as well as their final two games. 

Projected record: 10-8

Calgary Stampeders: 

Current record: 6-3

Remaining games: vs Saskatchewan, vs Edmonton, at Edmonton, vs BC, at Montreal, at BC, at Hamilton, vs Toronto, at Edmonton

Despite losing two of their last three, those two losses can be pinpointed to Vernon Adams Jr’s injury absence. Outside of those games, Calgary is 6-1 and has done an incredible job at rebounding from a 5-win 2024 season.

If the Stampeders are to make a return to the playoffs, they should ideally win at least four of their remaining nine games. 

On paper, it looks like an easy schedule. However, Saskatchewan is 8-1, and Edmonton is on a two-game win streak and has looked good since inserting Cody Fajardo at quarterback. BC is also no pushover; the Lions have won their last two games and the offence just put up 36 on a good Montreal defence. 

While this Calgary team is certainly good enough to make the playoffs, how they position themselves will be key if they are to go on a deep run. In this case, the Saskatchewan game is a must-win if the Stampeders are to keep pace for first in the West. And despite holding the tiebreaker on the Blue Bombers, Winnipeg could easily go on a win streak and get past Calgary should the Stampeders falter down the stretch. 

I say Calgary goes 3-6 to finish the season. They will lose the season series 2-1 against an Elks team with plenty of momentum, while also losing to Saskatchewan and Montreal (though this could go either way depending on the Alouettes’ quarterback situation).

While the Stampeders will split with BC, they will also split their remaining 2 games against East Division opposition. 

Projected record: 9-9

Edmonton Elks:

Current record: 3-6

Remaining games: at Ottawa, at Calgary, vs Calgary, at Toronto, at Hamilton, vs Saskatchewan, vs Winnipeg, at BC, vs Calgary

At one point, Edmonton was 1-6. Now they’re 3-6 after a two game win streak. 

Cody Fajardo’s heroics have not only put the Edmonton Elks in position to make a late run at the playoffs, but they have also put the former Grey Cup winner in position to be Edmonton’s potential long-term solution under centre. 

In the short-term, the Elks’ second-half slate puts the team in a unique position; one where they could challenge for the playoffs while also being in a position to play spoiler should things go horribly wrong over the next few weeks. 

Edmonton’s momentum should help them claim victory over Ottawa, putting them at 4-6 heading into Labour Day Weekend. They’ll split the home-and-home Battle of Alberta, before once again splitting their next two against Toronto and Hamilton; this would put the team at 6-8 heading into October. 

While Edmonton’s performance over the next four weeks will be key in their playoff hopes, their final four games could make or break the Elks’ chances. With Winnipeg, Saskatchewan, BC, and Calgary currently occupying four of the six playoff spots, Edmonton will need to find a way to win at least one of these games to have an impact on the playoff race. Despite Edmonton already having lost the tiebreaker to BC, the Elks can still secure the tiebreaker against Saskatchewan, Calgary, and Winnipeg. 

While Winnipeg has a thirteen-point aggregate advantage on Edmonton, in addition to Saskatchewan being ten points ahead of Edmonton in the standings, the Elks are set to potentially win the season-series against Calgary, giving the Elks a crucial two-point gain on the Stampeders over that span. 

It will come down to the wire, and this could always age very poorly, but I feel like the Elks are going to go on a late surge to equal Calgary’s regular-season record and finish above the Stampeders for the second-consecutive season.

Projected record: 9-9

Hamilton Tiger-Cats:

Current record: 6-4

Remaining games: vs Toronto, at Montreal, vs Winnipeg, vs Edmonton, at Winnipeg, at Toronto, vs Calgary, vs Ottawa

Despite the recent losing streak, Tiger-Cat fans should feel good because their next game is the annual Labour Day Classic against a down-in-the-dumps Argonauts team.

Actually, let’s add on the fact Hamilton gets to play this down-in-the-dumps Argonauts team twice before the season is out. 

Oh and Bo Levi Mitchell is also 16-2 against Toronto. 

I guess we should count those as wins on this projection?

Besides the two Toronto games, Hamilton plays Ottawa and Montreal once each before the season is out. Considering that the division lead isn’t exactly done-and-dusted yet, those are going to be must-win games if Hamilton is to maintain their advantage. 

To round out the second-half slate, Hamilton plays Winnipeg twice, while also playing each Alberta team one more time. 

While Hamilton is in a little bit of a slump at the moment, I do not expect that to continue for much longer; with East Division opposition on the schedule in three of the next six games, Hamilton should be able to get a good run going to close out the regular season and in preparation for a potential return to the playoffs. I think Hamilton will win at least four games of their remaining eight, however I would not be surprised if they replicate the success from their six-game win streak.

Projected record: 10-8

Montreal Alouettes:

Current record: 5-5

Remaining games: vs Winnipeg, vs Hamilton, at Saskatchewan, at Toronto, vs Calgary, vs Ottawa, at Ottawa, at Winnipeg

It’s a quarterback carousel in Montreal! Off comes Davis Alexander, off comes McLeod Bethel-Thompson, off comes Caleb Evans. On comes Shea Patterson and on comes Cameron Dukes. 

You know what else is a carousel in Montreal? The quality of play! Off comes the good play, on comes a three-game losing streak that has seen Montreal score just 46 points while giving up double that. 

Now yes, I make this joke in understanding that most of the Alouettes’ recent struggles can be attributed to injury and the sudden downturn of a strong defence. And while Davis Alexander’s eventual return to the lineup will be a boon for the Alouettes, the schedule won’t be. This week, a Winnipeg team that has seemingly started to find its groove offensively is coming to town, and a crucial game against Hamilton follows the Alouettes’ Week 13 bye. 

It doesn’t get any better than that. While the Alouettes have the luxury of playing the Argonauts, that game is sandwiched between matchups against Saskatchewan and Calgary, both of whom are in the thick of the Grey Cup conversation. And despite the defensive woes, Toronto did give Montreal a good scare in their second matchup of the season; save for a late collapse, we could have been talking about a far closer battle between the two teams. 

After that, the Alouettes conclude their season with a home-and-home against Ottawa and then on the road in Winnipeg. 

All of those games could be crucial. 

Even with the injury bug hitting Ottawa, I can’t see the Alouettes pulling too far ahead of Ottawa before the Thanksgiving Day game hits, making that contest and the following one at TD Place crucial in deciding who makes the playoffs and who doesn’t. Even in Week 21 against Winnipeg, playoff seeding and prospects will be on the line; I don’t see BC faltering at any point, while the East is still close enough that a continued losing streak could see Montreal miss the playoffs altogether. 

While the Alouettes should be able to salvage this poor stretch when Davis Alexander returns, it’s not a question of when he can rescue this team, but if he can. Montreal could easily drop each of the next three games and four of the next five, potentially costing the Alouettes their four point advantage on Ottawa for the right to host a home semifinal. 

Leading into the Ottawa series, I see Montreal going 1-4, however I do see them going 2-1 in the final stretch. Ottawa likely won’t sweep the head-to-head, and Winnipeg will either be resting players or playing a half simply to secure a sizable advantage for a playoff spot. 

Projected record: 8-10

Ottawa Redblacks:

Current record: 3-7

Remaining games: vs Edmonton, vs BC, at BC, vs Winnipeg, vs Saskatchewan, at Montreal, vs Montreal, at Hamilton

Speaking of Ottawa, what is going on?

Heading into their bye, they were 1-6. Now they’re 3-7 and (somewhat) back in the playoff picture. 

While Redblacks fans will say that it’s over, as long as Montreal isn’t going on a long win streak, it isn’t over yet. 

That said, their final eight is a crucial set. The Redblacks open it at home against Edmonton, before playing a home-and-home against the BC Lions; with both the Elks and Lions in the race for the final playoff spot, Ottawa will need to win at least two of those games in order to gain any sort of ground in the crossover, one if they are to simply keep pace with Montreal. 

After that comes another big game, this time at home against Winnipeg. For some strange reason, Ottawa tends to do well at home against Winnipeg; the Redblacks have won two straight meetings against Winnipeg when in the nation’s capital. With the Blue Bombers struggling to gain ground on the teams sitting on the outside looking in, Ottawa needs to win this game in order to up the pressure on Winnipeg. 

After a game against Saskatchewan, another big home-and-home presents itself, this time against Montreal. As long as Ottawa can match or even better Montreal’s record in their next five games, this home-and-home will decide the Redblacks and the Alouettes’ playoff hopes. If Ottawa wins both games, they will have the head-to-head tiebreaker, whereas any Montreal win would potentially all but eliminate Ottawa from playoff contention. Should Ottawa survive that series, a crucial Week 21 game against Hamilton will decide Ottawa’s playoff destiny. 

The fact that Ottawa is still in the playoff race not only astonishes me, but it gives me a little bit of optimism that the Redblacks can still save their season. I can see the Redblacks taking two or even three games leading into the Montreal series, putting Ottawa in a good position to complete their midseason turnaround. While they will split their series against Montreal based on my predictions, I do feel that Ottawa’s playoff hopes will make it past Thanksgiving, allowing the franchise to salvage their season and give themselves something to build towards in 2026. 

Projected record: 7-11

Saskatchewan Roughriders:

Current record: 8-1

Remaining games: at Calgary, vs Winnipeg, at Winnipeg, vs Montreal, at Edmonton, at Ottawa, vs Toronto, at Winnipeg, vs BC

I’m going to say this right now and you have every right to roast me on this in November. 

The Saskatchewan Roughriders are the favourite to win the Grey Cup this year. 

Yes, I know that half the season’s been played. 

Yes, I know they still have to play Winnipeg three times. 

Yes, I know there’s a genuine chance a West Division team gets the crossover and “represents” the East in the Grey Cup. 

But to be sitting two games clear of the closest team and three clear of the four-time regular season division winners is an advantage one should be thrilled to have. 

However, the next three weeks could easily decide whether the Roughriders hold that advantage or if they surrender their advantage to Winnipeg, Calgary, or both of those teams. 

After playing Calgary, Saskatchewan plays the Labour Day/Banjo Bowl double-header against Winnipeg in the three-week stretch that could decide the direction of the division. Should Saskatchewan go at least 2-1 or even sweep the three games, they could not only clinch a playoff berth with six to play, but they could all but secure the top spot in the West Division. 

Then comes staying the course, which befell Montreal when they clinched playoffs and the division early. Such a stretch would likely start against Montreal, before pitting the Riders against an Elks team looking to get back into the playoff hunt and then a Redblacks team looking to keep pace with Montreal and BC. 

While a game against Toronto could provide some reprieve, it could also be a trap should the Argos start to play spoiler. The final two games would see Saskatchewan take on Winnipeg and BC; should the Riders not have secured the division by now, these two games could be crucial in deciding Saskatchewan’s playoff seeding. 

I can see a way in which Saskatchewan clinches the top spot in the West, but recent history tells me otherwise. Mid/late season collapses have plagued Saskatchewan in each of the last three seasons, costing them either a spot in the playoffs or key positioning in the postseason. If Saskatchewan is to truly assert themselves as contenders, they must avoid the late collapse and secure the key seeding early. 

While they will have a slip up or two, I do see the Riders locking down the top spot in the West, with the losses only piling up after having done so and with key players being rested for a Grey Cup run. 

Projected record: 13-5

Toronto Argonauts: 

Current record: 2-8

Remaining games: vs BC, at Hamilton, vs Edmonton, vs Montreal, at BC, vs Hamilton, at Saskatchewan, at Calgary

While Toronto isn’t mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, things are looking very bleak for the Argonauts. While the Argos sit two points behind Ottawa for third in the East (they hold the tiebreaker on Ottawa), they are also six behind Montreal and eight behind Hamilton, gaps that are equivalent to three and four games respectively. Add in the fact that Montreal already has the head-to-head tiebreaker and that a Hamilton win over Toronto gives them the season-series, and you have a do-or-die situation for Toronto. 

So yes, it is now or never for the Argos. 

After playing the BC Lions in a game that could decide Toronto’s hopes in the crossover department (the Argos sit eight points behind the Lions for the crossover should one happen), the Argos play Hamilton in a game that could all but end Toronto’s hopes in winning the division for the fourth time in five years. Following another big game against Edmonton, Toronto hosts Montreal in the third of three meetings between the teams; while the Alouettes are going through their own funk at the moment, any more lost ground to the Alouettes could all but end Toronto’s playoff hopes. 

Following this game comes another matchup with BC and then Hamilton, while the Argos end their season on the road against Saskatchewan and then Calgary. 

Offensively, Toronto is good enough to at least win a handful of their remaining eight games, potentially up to half of them. That said, it is more likely the Argos take advantage of teams resting their starters to build some momentum towards a 2026 season, one that could be very tough given the World Cup and its impact on Toronto, than it is that the Argos get significantly involved in the end-of-season playoff push. 

With this in mind, I believe a split against Hamilton is possible, alongside victories over Saskatchewan and Calgary to close out the 2025 season.

Projected record: 5-13

Winnipeg Blue Bombers:

Current record: 5-4

Remaining schedule: at Montreal, at Saskatchewan, vs Saskatchewan, at Hamilton, at Ottawa, vs Hamilton, at Edmonton, vs Saskatchewan, vs Montreal

At one point last season, Winnipeg was 2-6. They won nine of their last ten games to win the West Division and beat out a resurgent Roughriders team. 

That alone should tell you this race to the top isn’t over just yet. 

That said, a home-and-home against Saskatchewan could all but determine if Winnipeg can once again earn the West Division’s top spot. Then, three straight games against East opposition could see Winnipeg either rise to the top or level out around third in the division. The Bombers’ final three games sees them head to Edmonton to take on an Elks squad finding their way into playoff contention, before a two-game home stand sees Winnipeg get one last look at Saskatchewan and a chance to potentially send Montreal packing to Cancun. 

While the offence is slowly but surely rounding into form, it is still taking the defence a while to find its groove. Should it fail to do so, Winnipeg could drop a handful of big games, costing them a chance at the top spot but not doing enough to send them packing either. I say another double-digit win season is the case in Winnipeg, with another Grey Cup run alongside it should Winnipeg get good seeding. 

Projected record: 10-8

Projected divisional standings:

East Division:

1. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (10-8)

2. Montreal Alouettes (8-10)

3. Ottawa Redblacks (7-11)

4. Toronto Argonauts (5-13)

West Division:

1. Saskatchewan Roughriders (13-5)

2. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (10-8)

3. BC Lions (10-8)

4. Edmonton Elks (9-9)

5. Calgary Stampeders (9-9)

Do the Argos fire Dinwiddie? Or are Argos fans taking their anger over 2025 a little too far?

After winning the Grey Cup last season for the second time in three years, the Toronto Argonauts now find themselves at 2-8 and in last place in the East Division. To make matters worse, they’re also six points back of the BC Lions for the final playoff spot. 

While time is running out very quickly, Toronto still has a chance to save their season, with key matchups against BC, Hamilton, and Montreal coming in three of their next four games. 

That said, should they fail to make up ground in the playoff race, what happens? Do the Argos stay the course, or do they hit the panic button and jettison the coaching staff, including head coach Ryan Dinwiddie. 

I say they stay the course. While the Argos haven’t played up to the standard set over the last few seasons, we are still talking about a Grey Cup winning coach here. And since his arrival in 2021, Ryan Dinwiddie has a 46-22 regular season record and a 5-2 postseason record to his name. The Argos have also made it to the East Final in each of his four seasons in charge while winning the Grey Cup twice. 

That said, there is always the chance MLSE (Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment) considers changing things up and hitting the reset button (and the panic button as well). But with the 2026 FIFA World Cup shaking the Argos home game schedule up significantly (as of this writing, three home games are to be played in other CFL stadiums while Toronto hosts its share of World Cup games), it is more likely the organization keeps things together and re-evaluates things following 2026 or at a point well into 2027. 

Week 12 quick picks:

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-4) vs Montreal Alouettes (5-5): 

Man do the Alouettes miss Davis Alexander. 

When Davis Alexander was put on the six-game injured list, the Alouettes were 4-2. 

Now they’re 5-5 and losers of three of their last four. 

And Winnipeg is coming into this matchup having won two of their last three. While they haven’t been pretty wins, the defence and special teams have been able to step up for the Blue Bombers with the offence stuck on a roller coaster.

Once again, it won’t be a pretty win; I wouldn’t be surprised if the kickers - consisting of Winnipeg’s Sergio Castillo and Jose Maltos for the Alouettes - give us the long-awaited Battle of the Field Goal Units. That said, I do think Winnipeg is the more likely of the two offences to get into the endzone, and so I am going to back the Blue Bombers to get to 6-4 before a crucial Labour Day/Banjo Bowl home-and-home against Saskatchewan. 

The pick: Blue Bombers 22, Alouettes 13

Edmonton Elks (3-6) vs Ottawa Redblacks (3-7):

Say all you want about how BC or Winnipeg are destined for the crossover, but I think this game is going to determine the fate of the final playoff spot.

While Ottawa trails Montreal by just four points for second in the East, they are currently tied with Edmonton in points (6 apiece) while sitting six back of BC and Winnipeg, with the Lions currently occupying the final playoff spot.

If Edmonton gets the win, they would set themselves up well to make a move up the division standings, while an Ottawa win could put them two points back of Montreal depending on the result of the Alouettes-Blue Bombers game the night before.

Should Dru Brown be healthy for the Redblacks, Ottawa should be able to keep up or even dictate the pace against an Elks offence that has found its footing under Cody Fajardo. While I think the Elks and Redblacks are just about evenly-matched in terms of offence, defensively, I think the edge belongs to Edmonton. Not only is the defence surrendering slightly less points - the Elks haven’t given up more than 30 points in each of their last four games - but playmakers like Tyrell Ford are actually getting a chance to make a difference in games rather than relying on the offence to outscore their issues. 

This game could go either way considering the indifference in offensive quality, but I think Edmonton will capitalize on their ongoing momentum and earn their third-straight win, setting themselves up for a big home-and-home series against Calgary. 

The pick: Elks 33, Redblacks 23

BC Lions (5-5) vs Toronto Argonauts (2-8):

A win for the BC Lions would see them possess a winning record for the first time since Week 1, while also keeping them in the hunt for third place in the West Division. Conversely, a win for the Toronto Argonauts would keep their slim playoff hopes going for at least another week. 

With both Nathan Rourke and Nick Arbuckle capable of leading their respective offences on scoring drives, I expect this game to be one with a lot of points. However, Nathan Rourke has been the better quarterback for much of 2025, with Arbuckle being prone to committing the odd turnover. And if it comes down to defence, I do trust the Lions’ defence a little bit more. 

Toronto keeps it close, but BC wins it. 

The pick: Lions 37, Argonauts 24

Saskatchewan Roughriders (8-1) vs Calgary Stampeders (6-3):

Unless Winnipeg makes a mark in the upcoming home-and-home, this game could all but decide the direction of the West Division regular-season battle. Should the Roughriders win, they would find themselves three games ahead of Calgary for the division lead with eight to play. If Calgary wins, the point difference between the two teams would be cut down to two, while the Stampeders would also control the tiebreaker should they be tied with the Riders at the end of the regular season. 

Like the first time these teams met, I think this is going to be a low-scoring encounter with plenty of turnovers. While Calgary will look to build off of their season-sweep of Winnipeg, I cannot see them doing the same against Saskatchewan. With a double-header coming against Winnipeg, Saskatchewan has to put themselves in the best position possible in the case they don’t win both games. That motivation and the larger goal it influences will be key in this game, and that should help to put Saskatchewan over the top in this one. 

The pick: Roughriders 24, Stampeders 14

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Article written by Noah Guttman