Answering Some of the Big Questions Heading into the Second Half of the Formula One Season

Even with the Dutch Grand Prix set to kick off a ten-race stretch that will conclude the 2025 Formula One season, there remains many questions that need to be answered or clarified heading down this second-half stretch. 

(Image Credit to Kym IIIman/Getty Images)

While McLaren is set to take home both championships, there are still ten races left to decide key places in the Constructors’ table and where drivers will sign for 2026.  

Let’s break down the key questions that will play a role in the outcome of the 2025 season and in deciding the grid for the 2026 season. 

With Max Verstappen’s place at Red Bull secured for 2026, what does Yuki Tsunoda’s future look like? 

After a whirlwind of rumours filled the news following Christian Horner's sacking, many people thought it was only a matter of time before Max Verstappen ended his long-term team partnership. 

Turns out, that wasn’t the case.

With Max Verstappen locked into a seat at Red Bull for 2026, the team can now start thinking about how to break through a top-four of Mercedes, Williams, Aston Martin, and Alpine that could result from the big regulation change coming this offseason. 

The one way they could do that? Changing up their second driver.

While we’ve seen flashes of form from Yuki Tsunoda following Christian Horner’s departure, we haven’t seen anything that could indicate any sort of consistency for next season. Granted, Yuki Tsunoda is probably going to be given until the end of the 2025 season to prove himself. However, if he can’t string together results by then, history has it that he will most likely find himself out of the Red Bull seat. 

Should his 2026 future lie outside Red Bull, Alpine and Cadillac could both be seen as options for the Japanese driver. 

With Alpine looking for a consistent point-scorer to pair with Pierre Gasly, Yuki Tsunoda could be called upon to fill that hole. While he hasn’t exactly enjoyed the best form with Red Bull, he has proven throughout his career that he is more than capable of putting together results and backstopping his team to top-ten finishes. When paired with Pierre Gasly, not only could Alpine bounce back from what could very well end up being a down year, but they could also push for a top-five finish in a season that could be dominated by Mercedes and its customer teams. 

Speaking of Alpine …

Who does Alpine put in the second seat for the rest of 2025? What about 2026?

While it has been suggested that Franco Colapinto will be in Alpine’s second seat for the remainder of 2025, his results haven’t exactly supported his claim for the seat. Considered alongside Pierre Gasly’s efforts to help the team, it’s clear that Alpine needs to secure a consistent point-scorer to partner with Pierre Gasly if they are to get out of the Constructors’ basement and contend in 2026.

For the remainder of 2025, giving Jack Doohan a second chance seems unlikely, but it could be an option for the French team. It would, however, likely mean that the team would have to ensure their focus was largely on development for 2026, if it isn’t already.  

Paul Aron, the current Alpine reserve, is also a potential driver that the team could put into the second seat for 2026. Who he partners with though won’t be a straightforward answer for now, with Gasly potentially looking at more competitive teams despite his contract extension beyond 2025.

What will be the first domino in this year’s driver market? 

Charlotte: The summer break means many things, but for the drivers, an important focus for them will be on renewing contracts and securing their place on the grid next year and beyond.

With ‘silly season’ soon upon us once again, the drivers at McLaren, Ferrari and Williams, along with Max Verstappen, are among the most notable of the grid that already have their seats secured for 2025 onwards.

However, drivers including George Russell, Kimi Antonelli, Liam Lawson and Isack Hadjar are yet to renew their contracts, with rumours constantly floating around the paddock regarding who will be the first driver to set the contract dominoes in motion?

Franco Colapinto is a driver surrounded by questions and rumours. The young Argentinian took over from Jack Doohan earlier this year, initially stated to only have 5 races with the team, but he is now going into the summer break with 8 races completed (although he is yet to score any points). More recently, in the Pirelli tyre test, Colapinto had a big crash and was taken to the medical centre (he was later cleared and is medically okay) with many saying this will be a deciding factor on whether or not his contract is renewed next year.

Noah: Arguably, the first domino is going to come from Cadillac. Once the paddock knows (or has a good idea) of what Cadillac’s first-ever driver lineup is going to look like, then we’re going to see the dominoes fall. 

What that driver lineup looks like is anyone’s guess. If it's a Bottas-Perez lineup, I expect much of the grid to stay put, with Mercedes to lock down both of their drivers to extensions while Red Bull promotes Isack Hadjar and maintains Liam Lawson’s place at Racing Bulls.

If it’s any other lineup combination, that is where we could see a little more movement. I could see Alpine, Mercedes, and Red Bull get engaged in negotiations for either Bottas or Perez, with Alpine and Red Bull the more likely teams to pursue a contract. 

Right now, the indication is that Sergio Perez is going to confirm his return to Formula One with Cadillac in the coming weeks, with Valtteri Bottas likely to follow. Should this change, we could be in for significant movement as the end of the 2025 season approaches. 

Did Ferrari truly get it wrong with Lewis Hamilton? Or is there an issue beyond Lewis Hamilton? 

Noah: A quote from Lewis Hamilton in a post-race interview really got me thinking. When asked if he had any ideas as to why he struggles with the Ferrari car, Lewis said the following:

“Not particularly, when you have a feeling you have a feeling, there's a lot going on in the background... that's not great.”

Could he potentially be referring to Ferrari’s strategy and management? Considering their history of throwing away opportunities to win championships and races, maybe so.

While we haven’t exactly seen the best results from Lewis Hamilton since his arrival, it’s been clear that he has been pushing for change within Ferrari. 

Will that change come? Who knows. But what could be clear is that his future at Ferrari may hinge on car performance for the rest of the season and for 2026; the British driver has the ability to decide if he wants to continue at Ferrari for 2027. Should the car not live up to expectations or should the team continue to get the strategy wrong, expect a major bombshell from Lewis Hamilton akin to the one that came about when he announced his move to Ferrari. 

Early Rookie of the Year rankings?

Noah:

Isack Hadjar

Ollie Bearman

Gabriel Bortoleto

Kimi Antonelli

Liam Lawson

Jack Doohan

Franco Colapinto

While he doesn’t have the most points out of all the rookie drivers, Isack Hadjar has had himself a pretty good rookie season thus far. Not only is the French driver five points outside the top ten in the Drivers’ Championship as of the summer break, but he also has a perfect record in the first round of qualifying. With ten races to go, Isack Hadjar could become one of the only drivers in Formula One history to have gone an entire season with a perfect record in Q1 (Lewis Hamilton did it in his rookie season, though that was a 17-race season). That alone could hand Isack Hadjar the award with ease, but to go through his first fourteen races without a Q1 elimination is, in itself, enough to make him a favourite for Rookie of the Year.

Like Isack Hadjar, Ollie Bearman hasn’t scored the most points out of the rookie drivers. However, Ollie Bearman’s case comes from the idea that he’s been able to gain positions quite consistently even in a Haas; the British driver has gained 44 total positions over the fourteen Grand Prix and three sprint races run so far in 2025. Even with the Haas car’s inferiority compared to other midfield contenders like Sauber and Aston Martin, Ollie Bearman has shown that he is able to gain positions in a given race. 

Initially, I had Kimi Antonelli in third place in my Rookie of the Year rankings courtesy of his strong early-season performances. However, after watching the Hungarian Grand Prix, I’ve got to give that to Gabriel Bortoleto. The Brazilian rookie has clearly demonstrated his ability to master a challenging-to-drive Sauber car; he has been able to score points or put himself in a position to score points quite consistently throughout the season’s middle part. While he isn’t quite on the level of Ollie Bearman or even Nico Hulkenberg in terms of positions gained, he is slowly gaining a comparative advantage to some of his fellow rookies in the point-scoring department. 

Despite his demotion, Liam Lawson has been able to consistently get into a position where he can earn strong results. An example of this came at Monaco; a strong qualifying saw Liam Lawson start ninth, eventually gaining a position and earning four points at a Monaco street circuit that can be very challenging even for rookies. 

At the bottom of my rankings are the two Alpine drivers. Here, I give the slight edge to Jack Doohan. While Franco Colapinto’s results have been slightly more eye-catching, Jack Doohan got the short end of the stick from his team due to the signing of the Argentinian youngster; even then, he had been able to gain positions in-race throughout his six Grand Prix weekends in Alpine. 

Charlotte:

Isack Hadjar

Kimi Antonelli

Gabriel Bortoleto

Ollie Bearman

Liam Lawson

Franco Colapinto

Jack Doohan

The Racing Bulls driver, Isack Hadjar, may not yet have top three finishes or pole positions to put on his record - however he is having a fantastic season so far. Both on and off track, Hadjar maintains consistency and results, taking home points in many races and without a single Q1 elimination. When not racing, Isack Hadjar is slowly becoming a social media icon and fan favourite, alongside his teammate, Liam Lawson, with the pair participating in a variety of social media trends such as lip-syncs. Combining all these factors could lead to success, as Rookie of the Year.

Kimi Antonelli - Mercedes’ next superstar is a close second in the finishing order for best Rookie this year. After only half a season he sits 7th in the WDC standings with 64 points, currently the highest of all the rookies. Is this just the car and team he’s in though? Kimi has already got a pole position in the Miami sprint race, and has already stood on the podium in third place - but with DNFs and poor results more recently, what will the rest of the season throw at him?

Gabriel Bortoleto and Ollie Bearman. Either of these young drivers could take third in the rookie standings. With Bortoleto’s recent performances and Bearman’s place gaining skills, both of these drivers have great potential, but with Sauber’s recent surge in performance, Bortoleto is on track to keep improving his performance and scoring more points. Now Liam Lawson, the driver who had 5 races in ‘23, 6 races in ‘24 and so far a full season this year (2 races for RedBull at the start of the year), currently sits 15th in the championship with 20 points, 2 points away from teammate Isack Hadjar.

Franco Colapinto and Jack Doohan - the two Alpine drivers fighting for a seat - Doohan failed to score any points in his 6 races, but with multiple top 15 appearances, showed signs of improvement if he remained as a driver. Colapinto seems to be in the same boat as Doohan, many top 15 finishes but yet to score points or have standout races. Is this a problem with the Alpine car, maybe some internal issues with the team? Or are both drivers just not at their peak performance? Only time will tell.

Early Constructors’ table projection?

Noah: 

McLaren

Ferrari

Mercedes

Red Bull

Aston Martin

Williams

Sauber

Racing Bulls

Haas 

Alpine

McLaren is all but set to clinch the Constructors’ Championship within the next handful of races. Azerbaijan is the earliest they could clinch the Constructors’, but even with Ferrari’s newfound pace, I would be shocked if they don’t win it before the scene shifts back to the North American continent. 

As for the battle for second, this is where things could get spicy. While Ferrari has a twenty-four-point advantage on Mercedes, the Scuderia did throw away Charles Leclerc’s pole position in Hungary in what kicked off an epic meltdown. Mercedes does have the pace to pick up some more points on Ferrari, but I think Ferrari will just hold onto that second-place spot in the Constructors’ table. 

That said, the Silver Arrows will maintain their hold of third place over Red Bull. While Max Verstappen has been able to carry Red Bull even without any performance from the team’s second drivers, it’s clear that's only good enough for fourth place.  

After the Monaco Grand Prix, Williams had 54 points to their name. Aston Martin, who now occupies sixth in the Constructors’ Championship, had just fourteen. Since that point, Aston Martin has scored 38 points to Williams’ sixteen and has closed Williams’ advantage for fifth to eighteen points. With Aston Martin scoring almost triple the points per race weekend (6.3) compared to Williams (2.3), the team could find themselves in a direct confrontation with Williams for fifth by the time Formula One returns to North American soil for the United States Grand Prix. While Williams won’t outright collapse in the Constructors’ table, I don’t think they can remain on the same pace as Aston Martin should things continue the way they are. Therefore, it’s not a matter of if, but when Aston Martin gets the job done. 

To console Williams fans fuming at this take, here’s a more positive one: both Williams and Aston Martin will score at least 100 points this season. 

As for seventh, I do see Sauber maintaining their hold on the position. While Racing Bulls’ duo of Isack Hadjar and Liam Lawson is more than capable of getting a strong points finish, having scored in three of the last four races, Sauber will look to finish off their era in Formula One on a strong note. And they’re already looking to do that; including Nico Hulkenberg’s podium at Silverstone, the Swiss-based Constructor has scored points in each of the last six race weekends. I believe their form will continue when the summer break comes to a close and they will come very close to scoring 100 points when the season concludes in Abu Dhabi. 

For ninth and tenth, I see Haas and Alpine maintaining their positioning. While Pierre Gasly has done a good job keeping Alpine competitive and within striking distance of moving up the table, he’s the only one performing right now for the Enstone-based Constructor. On the other hand, both Ollie Bearman and Esteban Ocon are earning point finishes, giving Haas a much stronger hand.

Charlotte:

Mclaren

Ferrari

Mercedes

Red Bull

Williams

Aston Martin

Racing Bulls

Sauber

HAAS

Alpine

The Constructors' trophy is set to land in the hands of the papaya for a second year running. With their boost in performance and back-to-back podium finishes, the team could be on track to win the championship well before the end of the season. Going into the second half of the season with 559 points, the rest of the teams are more than likely stuck fighting for second place.

Ferrari and Mercedes will, and have been in close battle throughout this season - with both teams having less than 3 races where they score under 10 points. Their drivers bring results time and time again, but that doesn’t mean things can’t change. Both teams have had their fair share of disappointing races - with disqualifications and early retirements due to damage and mechanical issues, the race is on to maintain their high up position and challenge McLaren.

Red Bull - the team looked so strong across the past few seasons, but what happened? They went from winning championships to fighting for race wins and point finishes, and with internal conflict and rumours, management shifts and early driver swaps, their performance has dropped. With other teams making the most out of those factors and Max Verstappen being the only driver to bring a huge points haul (187 vs Tsunoda’s 10) it’s clear the team will remain out of the top three.

Williams and Aston Martin. Both of these constructors have leaped forward with their progress and results in races, and are about equal in performance and points (Williams’ 70 to Aston Martin’s 52) - so how will this change over the rest of the season? Aston are improving race on race, with the drivers finishing within the top 10 many times, it would not be a surprise to see them move up in the standings and surpass Williams. Although the Vowles-run team are improving, it’s more likely that we will see major shifts in performance and results from Williams at the start of 2026, with new regulations and full focus on improving their racecraft.

The lower end of the constructors consists of the last four teams: Racing Bulls, Sauber, HAAS and Alpine. It’s unlikely that these predictions will shift dramatically - however the Racing Bulls and Sauber cars are both very capable of bringing in a big points haul at the end of the weekend (Nico Hulkenberg - Silverstone) so there may be some movement between the two teams. HAAS and Alpine however still have a long way to go if they want to see some improvement on the Constructor standings.

Article written by Noah Guttman and Charlotte Taylor ©️ Charlotte Taylor 2025