CFL Week 4 Predictions: Montreal’s first true test takes the Alouettes to the Hammer, while a key matchup is set to take place in the nation’s capital.

With the first three weeks in the books, the Saskatchewan Roughriders and Montreal Alouettes are off to respective 3-0 starts, while the Winnipeg Blue Bombers also are off to an unbeaten start; they sit at a 2-0 mark. But as Canada Day weekend rolls around, will the offensive fireworks go off for the Elks in an effort to avoid starting 0-3? And can the B.C offence figure things out before their season starts to fall off the rails?

(Image Credit: The Canadian Press/ Jason Franson)

Last week, I went 3-1 with my picks, only getting the Ottawa Redblacks-Calgary Stampeders game wrong. As a result, I now find myself at a 6-6 record on the season. This means that, since I am getting one more pick right than I did the previous week, I should go 4-0 with my picks this week, right? Right?

Let’s get into said 4-0 worthy picks:

Edmonton Elks (0-2) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-0):

Let’s be honest. Despite the Elks making their 38-28 loss seem a lot closer than it really was, it in fact wasn’t. But I will say that their run game looked good. 

Everything else wasn’t. 

Now there will be people that say “but Noah, they could have completed the comeback. The offence looked good in the fourth.” And I say that it was 38-14 before the Elks surge; at the rate things were going, even if Edmonton had gotten it to a one-score game, there would still be barely enough time left. I mean sure crazier things have happened but still. 

That said, the Elks will be able to take the confidence acquired from that late comeback attempt on the road to Winnipeg to take on a Bombers squad coming off of another dominant victory over the B.C. Lions, this time a 27-14 decision. While the Bombers run game did underwhelm, only amassing 86 yards, Zach Collaros had a good-but-not-great night in his season debut, throwing for just shy of 200 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. And while the Bombers did possess the ball for over half the game, they were able to both control the clock and get the ball down the field quickly, which threw off the Lions defence considerably. The two turnovers may take a little shine off of their ability to move the ball, but the struggles of the Lions offence rendered them insignificant in terms of the final score.  

The Elks may try to use their run game, which put up almost 150 yards and a touchdown against the Montreal Alouettes, against Winnipeg. While the Elks did succeed in breaking down Montreal’s run defence, Winnipeg’s run defence has only given up 30 yards in its first two games of the season; it is worth noting that both those games were against the B.C Lions. It will therefore be interesting to see if the Elks run game is capable of making the leagues best run defences sweat a little bit. With both Elks quarterback Tre Ford and Bombers quarterback Zach Collaros more than capable of getting the ball out and down the field, the Elks run game vs the Bombers run defence is therefore going to be the key matchup that decides the outcome of this game. 

On paper, this game heavily favours the Bombers. However, as I’ve given this more thought, I think the Elks could put a stake in this contest and keep it close. Ultimately, I am going to play it safe and take the Bombers to just beat out the Elks, but Edmonton will continue to be competitive and make progress towards their first win of the season. 

The pick: Blue Bombers 27, Elks 23

Montreal Alouettes (3-0) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-2):

Outside of a fourth quarter that saw the Alouettes advantage briefly threatened, it was smooth sailing for Montreal as they pulled off a 38-28 win over the Edmonton Elks. 

Even with the win, there was still some room for concern for the Alouettes, coming in the form of quarterback Davis Alexander, who left the game early due to a leg injury. While Davis Alexander has said that it isn’t a serious injury, his health will be worth keeping an eye on in the lead up to the Alouettes game against the Tiger-Cats, who are coming off of a 28-23 loss to the Saskatchewan Roughriders. 

Despite being 0-2, Hamilton could have easily been 1-1; this is especially true considering the Riders game was all but decided on a Bo Levi Mitchell pick-six early in the third quarter. Yes, there was still a lot of football to be played, but considering that both teams basically traded blows the rest of the way, that pick-six can be seen as the game’s deciding score. And the Tiger-Cats did generally play like they wanted to win that game against Saskatchewan - the defence succeeded in keeping a capable Riders offence off the scoreboard until late in the second quarter while forcing an interception and a sack in the meantime. 

While Montreal has won each of its first three games by at least two scores, the status of Davis Alexander could easily play a major role in the games outcome. Outside of health, it is clear that Montreal also has been struggling in defending longer passing plays and in preventing completions. That should play in the favour of Bo Levi Mitchell, who completes 63% of his passes and is more than capable of finding receivers deep down the field. However, the Alouettes do have a strong run game at their disposal; against Edmonton, Montreal rushed for over 100 yards and a touchdown, with running back Sean Thomas-Erlington contributing 63 of those yards. Sean Thomas-Erlington is also off to a strong start with Montreal, rushing for just under 170 yards and a touchdown in three games; his start represents the early dominance of the Alouettes run game, which has rushed for over 350 yards in three games and has scored at least one rushing touchdown in each of their first three matchups. 

While Montreal will look to grind through Hamilton’s run defence, Bo Levi Mitchell’s ability to to stretch opposing defences and move his offence up the field in a quick and efficient manner  will keep this game close. While I do not see Hamilton beating Montreal, regardless of who is starting at quarterback, I think it will take the Alouettes until the final frame to close Hamilton out. 

The pick: Alouettes 30, Tiger-Cats 20

B.C. Lions (1-2) vs Saskatchewan Roughriders (3-0):

The first of two Division Semifinal rematches to take place this week sees the B.C Lions, coming off of a 27-14 loss to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, head east to take on a Saskatchewan Roughriders team that only beat the Toronto Argonauts 39-32 on a last-second kickoff return. 

In the Riders-Argos game, a few things stood out to me. Firstly, like against Ottawa and Hamilton, the Roughriders defence wasn’t able to keep the Argos from scoring even with a depleted roster. Now while that point is somewhat moot, as every defence has given up at least 20 points at some point this season, that fact does hold some value when considering that Saskatchewan has won their first three games by one score. In addition, of every team that has won so far this season, Saskatchewan is the only team to have every win come by one score (8 points) or less. 

Yes, I know it’s early in the season. And yes, I know the Riders offence has been able to put up at least 30 points in two of their three wins. But these statistics do come with the following question: what happens when the offence can’t score? Unless the defence starts to keep opponents off the board, the Riders and their fans might not like the answer.

The good news is that it remains to be seen if that will be the case this week, though Nathan Rourke is on track to reclaim the starting reins for this Week 4 encounter. But what was made clear in Week 3 is that regardless of who is at quarterback, this B.C Lions team is more than capable of moving the ball down the field, with playmakers like running back James Butler and wide receiver Justin McInnis more than capable of leading the charge for the Lions offence. 

The question for B.C, like with the Riders, is one that asks what happens if the offence can’t score. Unlike with the Riders, we did get that answer in the Lions’ Week 3 rematch with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. It wasn’t a pleasant answer. Outside of a garbage-time touchdown, the Lions offence with Jeremiah Masoli as the starter put up 6 points in over 50 minutes of play. Ouch. 

The good news for B.C. is that they proved they’re capable of moving the ball, as the Lions were able to put up over 300 yards of offence against Winnipeg. The bad news is they turn the ball over or fail to put drives together at the worst possible times, hindering their ability to put points up on the board. 

As for this matchup, it’s going to be more of the same. If the Lions offence can avoid the turnovers and the lack of cohesion that plagued them in Week 2 and 3, there is a chance they can consistently break down a bend-but-won’t-break Riders defence, allowing for B.C to put points galore on the board. If not, they are going to get punished. 

And while the run game could give the Lions a reprieve from the inability to score, it won’t. This is because the Riders run defence gives up only 40 yards per game. 

Overall, this is a game that the Lions could either control altogether or one that gets away from them quite quickly. They need to be surgical in the passing game, only picking out the right opportunities and avoiding 5 yard and lateral passes. But as it's essentially a pick your poison affair going against the Riders offence - running backs A.J Ouellette and now Ka’Deem Carey are more than capable of destroying a D-line, while quarterback Trevor Harris is more than capable of destroying a secondary - I cannot see the Lions defence making stops consistently. 

That is going to hurt them in this game. And that’s why I’m backing Saskatchewan to go 4-0.

The pick: Roughriders 33, Lions 18

Toronto Argonauts (0-3) vs Ottawa Redblacks (1-2):

This game is going to be an incredibly pivotal one in the early East Division picture. 

With three games separating the Toronto Argonauts - who did well to try and earn their first win against Saskatchewan, only to fall short on a late kickoff return - from the first place Montreal Alouettes, the time is now for them to make their move up the standings. This is especially true when looking at their next five games following this encounter:

Home vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Away vs Montreal Alouettes (after their Week 6 bye)

Home vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Away vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Home vs Ottawa Redblacks

Not only do two of their next six games serve as Grey Cup rematches - this comes in the form of their home-and-home with Winnipeg - but they also play the remaining four games against East Division opposition. Sure, that could be a chance to move up the standings and reverse early season damage. But Montreal is clearly the best team in the league (as of this writing) and Hamilton did sweep Toronto last season. 

Regardless of how this oncoming stretch pans out for Toronto, this Week 4 encounter is going to be a must-win if the Argos are to strengthen their early-season positioning in the playoff battle. 

Meanwhile, the same can’t be said for the Ottawa Redblacks, who picked up their first win of the season over Calgary in a rainy 20-12 affair. While the passing game got some looks, it was the run game, led by running back Daniel Adeboboye, that helped push Ottawa over the top. He’ll get the chance to continue making a mark against his old team in what will be a pivotal game for Ottawa as well, but in a different way from the Argos. 

With Ottawa sitting in second in the East Division, holding a one-game advantage over Toronto and a half-game advantage over Hamilton due to the Tiger-Cats bye, a win against Toronto could help give the Redblacks a big cushion over those two opponents especially with the following five games post-Week 4:

At Edmonton Elks

At Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Home vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Home vs Calgary Stampeders (after their Week 8 bye)

At Toronto Argonauts

With a somewhat more doable stretch upcoming compared to that of Toronto, you’d have to imagine that a Week 4 win against the Argos could be huge in the early playoff race. And with the defence enjoying a strong Week 3 performance against Calgary, stopping the Stampeders twice on the goaline while forcing a fumble recovery and a game-sealing interception, one would not be foolish to think that, regardless who the starting quarterback is, the confidence is there going forward for the Ottawa Redblacks locker room. 

If the Argonauts are to win their first game of the season, the offence will have to play to the same standard that they maintained against Saskatchewan. In addition, the defence is going to have to find an effective solution for the run and the return game. Not only is this because they lost to the Riders on a kickoff return, but they also gave up almost 150 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Even then, all of the momentum in this game is going to be with Ottawa, and I just cannot see the Argos getting their first win in this situation. It will be close, but Ottawa wins.

The pick: Redblacks 30, Argos 26

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Article written by Noah Guttman