CFL Week 5 Predictions: Calgary looks to get back on track against Winnipeg, while Hamilton and Toronto battle for key positioning in the East Division.

Week 4 was a very interesting one in the CFL. Edmonton gave Winnipeg its first scare of 2025, while Hamilton and Toronto were both able to put their first wins of the season on the board. Heading into Week 5, can the Blue Bombers re-establish themselves against a revamped Stampeders team? And could Hamilton-Toronto be the game of the week?

(Image Credit to CFL.ca / Kevin Sousa)

Last week, I went 2-2 with my picks. While I nailed the Winnipeg Blue Bombers' win over the Edmonton Elks and the Saskatchewan Roughriders’ win over the B.C. Lions, I completely missed the mark on the Montreal-Hamilton and Ottawa-Toronto games. As a result, I now find myself with an 8-8 record after four weeks of CFL action. 

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-0) vs Calgary Stampeders (2-1)

I’m not going to lie, it really did look like Winnipeg was in trouble for most of their game against Edmonton. 

It really seemed that way when Edmonton kicker Vincent Blanchard tied the game at 23 heading into the final fifteen minutes. 

But the Winnipeg defence stepped up in the fourth quarter to get critical stops; a thirteen-point quarter for Zach Collaros and Co. helped to seal a 36-23 win for the Blue Bombers. 

So while the story of the game will be one of Edmonton hanging around with the best of the West, for Winnipeg, at the end of the day, a win is a win. 

Unfortunately, the same could not be said for Calgary, who comes into this critical West Division matchup, which is also the first edition of the “Stampede Bowl”, off the heels of a rain-soaked 20-12 loss to the Ottawa Redblacks. 

While I will give Calgary a little bit of the benefit of the doubt because of the rainy conditions, especially regarding the offensive side of the ball, their performance against Ottawa was not encouraging. The run defence is going to get most of my criticism; after giving up just over 100 rushing yards in its first two games, the run defence got gashed by not one, not two, but three Ottawa rushers (I count backup quarterback Dustin Crum in this conversation because his strengths do lie in the run game and he is the Redblacks’ short-yard quarterback).

How many yards did said Redblacks' run game get? 242. 242 yards. For a Stampeders defence looking to turn the corner in 2025, that was not the way to work towards that. 

Unfortunately for the Stampeders, they have to play their next game, which also serves as the inaugural Stampede Bowl due to the Stampeders playing at home at the same time as the Calgary Stampede, against a Blue Bombers team whose run game is averaging well over 100 yards a game. To put this into context, in their opening game against B.C., running back Matthew Peterson rushed for 130 yards HIMSELF. He earned Winnipeg’s average rushing yard total BY HIMSELF. IN ONE GAME. 

That said, there are two keys for Calgary if they are to beat this Winnipeg team. Firstly, the offence is going to have to bounce back after a slow game against Ottawa. Considering that Calgary put up 29 and 38 points in their first two games, this is probably the more doable key to the game. Secondly, the Stampeders' run defence will have to step up against Winnipeg. If they let the Winnipeg run game get going, let’s just say it’s going to be a long game for the defence. 

Arguably, this game is going to be more critical for Calgary than for Winnipeg for a few reasons. For one, this is the first time this new-look Stampeders team is going up against West Division opposition; this will serve as a litmus test for whether the team stacks up any better against divisional rivals than they did last season. Secondly, they play Winnipeg again in two weeks. Finally, this stretch concludes the first half of the Stampeders' season: 

Away vs Saskatchewan 

Away vs Winnipeg

Home vs Montreal

Away vs Ottawa

Home vs Winnipeg

Not only does Calgary have to play West Division opposition in three of the five weeks following The Stampede Bowl, but they also play all three of their scheduled games against Winnipeg in a six-week span. Alongside matchups with a hot Riders team and the Montreal Alouettes, this is a stretch that could easily make or break Calgary’s season. Having two wins already does help to mitigate any concern this stretch brings up, but it is clear that Calgary has to win at least one game out of three against Winnipeg. With the first one taking place in Calgary, I can see the Stampeders using the home crowd to keep this game close, but I just don’t see how the Calgary run defence is able to stop Winnipeg’s run game. 

Sans Vernon Adams Jr, this is a blowout. With Vernon Adams Jr, they keep this close, but Winnipeg gets the job done. 

The pick: Blue Bombers 33, Stampeders 24

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-2) vs Toronto Argonauts (1-3)

If there was a game for the Ticats' defence to show up, it was against Montreal. 

After a 0-2 start that saw Hamilton give up a combined 66 points over two games, the Tiger-Cats went into their Week 3 bye knowing that they needed a win in Week 4 to avoid falling into yet another early hole. And with Davis Alexander out after pulling a leg muscle against Edmonton, the opportunity to get a win needed to be taken.  

It’s safe to say that the Tiger-Cats played like they needed the win. The defence showed up, giving up just 17 points to a strong Alouettes offence, and the Bo Levi Mitchell-led offence gradually started firing on all cylinders after a slow start. All that together earned the Hamilton Tiger-Cats a dominant 35-17 victory, their first of the season. 

The significance of this victory cannot be understated. While the victory marked quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell’s 100th career win (he also became the fastest QB in CFL history to hit that mark), it also meant that 2025 would be the first season since 2021 where Hamilton did not lose at least their first three games. 

They will look to keep that momentum going against their closest rivals (figuratively and literally - the distance between Hamilton and Toronto is only 70 kilometres), the Toronto Argonauts. The Argos are coming off of their own first win of the season, defeating the Ottawa Redblacks 29-16 in what was a dominant affair. Despite rushing for just 30 yards, it seemed like the Argos didn’t need to run the ball as Nick Arbuckle threw for 269 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Receivers Damonte Coxie and Davaris Daniels were the big contributors for the Argos' offence against Ottawa, and Kevin Mital got some good looks throughout the game. 

Going up against a resurgent Hamilton defence creates quite an interesting matchup. While the Argos' passing game has the ability to burn secondaries at will, the Hamilton pass defence has been one of the Tiger-Cats’ bright spots so far this season, having forced at least one interception in each of the team’s first three games. 

Considering this matchup, I am going to lean towards the Tiger-Cats. Not only has Bo Levi Mitchell been able to effectively lead the Tiger-Cats' offence, but he has also thrown at least one passing touchdown in each of his first three games this season. Combine that with a Tiger-Cats defence that is capable of cancelling out opposing passing games, and you have the ingredients for a Tiger-Cats win.

The pick: Tiger-Cats 30, Argos 20 

B.C. Lions (1-3) vs Montreal Alouettes (3-1)

After a third-straight loss, with the last one being a 37-18 decision against the Saskatchewan Roughriders, it is clear that questions need to be asked about this Lions team. Yes, Nathan Rourke was out for two of the three losses and yes, all three losses came against Winnipeg and Saskatchewan. But if B.C. is going to establish itself as a contender, or even get itself back on track, it needs to get wins against those who are in that category. 

The Lions will have a chance to do just that this weekend against the Montreal Alouettes, who are coming off of a 35-17 loss to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. While the Alouettes' run defence did look good against a depleted Hamilton run game, the passing defence did get opened up significantly by Tiger-Cats quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell; it gave up 258 total yards and two touchdowns through the air. 

Against Saskatchewan, Lions running back James Butler was probably the only bright spot in what was a poor performance for the team, rushing for 123 yards and a touchdown. If Nathan Rourke is once again out or struggling to make plays happen, expect James Butler to shoulder much of the weight of this B.C. offence. He’ll be going up against a tough Alouettes run defence that has consistently stymied opposing run games; this will be the key matchup to watch in this game. 

Regardless of who is starting at quarterback for Montreal, I think the Alouettes should still be the favourites to win this game. While B.C. could control the game through their rushing attack, I cannot see the Lions' defence having any sort of response for the Alouettes' receiving corps. The Alouettes will bounce back and win this game, while the Lions will be left searching for answers once again. 

The pick: Alouettes 27, Lions 10

Ottawa Redblacks (1-3) vs Edmonton Elks (0-3)

Don’t let the 0-3 mark completely fool you. While the Elks did handily lose their first two games, they put up a valiant effort against Winnipeg and could’ve won despite losing 36-23. 

As for Ottawa? What an awful effort from them as they lost to the Toronto Argonauts 29-16. Despite battling back in the third quarter after being down 18-3 at halftime, simple mistakes, terrible defence, and penalties kept Ottawa from completing the comeback. 

And now they march into Edmonton to take on an Elks squad that put up a valiant effort against Winnipeg and one that could easily lean on their run game to score points. 

I am favouring the Elks for a few reasons. Firstly, while the scoreboard and the defensive efforts might not suggest it, Edmonton is making progress under head coach Mark Kilam. This is especially true on the offensive side of the ball, as quarterback Tre Ford is slowly starting to look more comfortable as the Elks' full-time starter. Secondly, the Elks' offence is capable of keeping the team in games. In two of their three losses to open the season, Edmonton was within ten points heading into the fourth quarter. And finally, while the Redblacks may have an offence capable of moving the ball, their defence has been struggling to contain opposing offences, which could lend the advantage to Edmonton’s offence throughout this game.

While the weather may favour the Redblacks on gameday, with light rain potentially in the forecast for kickoff, that advantage they had against Calgary is effectively cancelled out by Edmonton’s run game. I can see Edmonton controlling the flow of this game against a poor Redblacks defence by primarily hitting them with the run game and then gaining big chunks through short passes. All of this will allow for Edmonton to claim its first victory of the season. 

The pick: Elks 27, Redblacks 17

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Article written by Noah Guttman