CFL Week 6 Predictions: Coming off of a massive win, Calgary heads to Regina for another big divisional game. On the other side of the country, Hamilton plays host to an intra-divisional game against

And then there was one. With Winnipeg’s loss to Calgary on Thursday night, only the Saskatchewan Roughriders remain undefeated. But is their 4-0 record in danger going up against a strong Calgary team? And how will key divisional matchups taking place in Edmonton and Hamilton shake out?

(Image Credit to Gavin Young/Postmedia)

Last week, I went 2-2 with my weekly picks - I ended up getting the Tiger-Cats' win over the Argonauts and the Elks' win over the Redblacks right, while missing the mark on the Stampeders' victory over Winnipeg and the Lions' win over the Alouettes. As a result, I now find myself sitting at a 10-10 record on the season. That said, with three games scheduled for Week 6, I will have a chance to give myself a winning record with almost a third of the season played. 

Let’s get into the predictions I believe will earn me that winning record:

Calgary Stampeders (3-1) vs Saskatchewan Roughriders (4-0):

In what is starting to look like a wild race for the West Division, Calgary got a massive win to put themselves into that conversation. 

And to describe their 37-16 win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the inaugural Stampede Bowl, let’s just say that Calgary trampled, pranced, stampeded, whatever horse-related word in past tense you want to use, their way past a previously undefeated Blue Bombers squad.  

The throwdown got started early as Calgary took an early 8-0 lead on a passing touchdown from Vernon Adams Jr to receiver Clark Barnes, which was followed up by a single on the ensuing kickoff. While Winnipeg was able to move the ball consistently, the Blue Bombers could only put up six points in the first half. To add on to the Blue Bombers’ misery, Calgary scored off of a pick-six thrown by Zach Collaros, and the Bombers’ defence had no answer for either the run game, led by Dedrick Mills, or a wide receiver room whose depth is getting vital experience in the face of injuries to top receivers. 

The same was true for the second half. While Bombers running back Brady Oliveira did his best to keep his team in the game - he did average almost 5 yards per rush throughout the game - the offence could not get anything going throughout the game. Worse, just as a comeback was potentially brewing, Zach Collaros threw another pick-six, effectively handing Winnipeg the loss. 

While Winnipeg will have their bye in Week 6, allowing for them to step back and reassess how to attack their final fourteen games of the season, Calgary has an important victory in their back pocket. With two more matches still to come against Winnipeg, alongside a matchup with Montreal and this week's encounter with Saskatchewan, there is still plenty of opportunity for Calgary’s positioning in the West Division to change. At the same time, their Week 5 win over Winnipeg represents a strong start to that stretch; the team must use this as a confidence booster ahead of a big stretch of games leading up to their second bye in Week 11.

The next game in that stretch comes against the Saskatchewan Roughriders, who are coming off of their Week 5 bye and a 37-18 Week 4 victory over the B.C. Lions. With the Roughriders sitting at 4-0, a win over Saskatchewan would give Calgary control over the West Division heading into Week 7.

However, that is going to be easier said than done. While Trevor Harris was out in Week 4 due to a head injury, the Riders’ second-string quarterback Jake Maier did a good job in his place. Against the B.C. Lions, Jake Maier threw for 170 yards and a touchdown, while averaging over 7 yards per completion. However, it was the run game that once again stole the show for Saskatchewan, with A.J Ouellette providing 139 yards and a touchdown. In addition, short-yardage quarterback Tommy Stevens, one of the league’s best in that department, provided 33 yards on just 7 carries, while second-string running back contributed 16 yards on 3 carries. 

There are three factors that are going to decide this matchup. The first is the run game. In this regard, Saskatchewan’s A.J Ouellette and Calgary’s Dedrick Mills find themselves atop the league in rushing yards with 347 and 311 yards to their names respectively. It’s not just them, however. Calgary’s ground game is backed up by quarterback Vernon Adams Jr, who has 116 yards on the ground, while Saskatchewan’s is backed by Thomas Bertrand-Hudon, who has 96 yards to his name. In all, these are two deep-running games that should find plenty of opportunities to make a difference against strong defences.

That brings me to my second factor: defence. It is here that we can see a little bit of separation between the Stampeders and the Roughriders. With regard to Calgary’s defence, alongside the Alouettes, they are arguably one of the best defences, on paper and on the field, in the league. They’ve forced a turnover in three of their first four games while securing at least two interceptions in two of those games. The Stampeders defence also has three players with at least 20 tackles; Jacob Roberts, Micah Teitz, and Sheldon Arnold II have 24, 22, and 20 tackles to their respective names. 

While the Riders have struggled in keeping opponents from putting points on the board, it is necessary to look beyond the final score to understand the quality of this Saskatchewan defence. Not only does the Roughriders' defence earn at least a quarterback sack and/or a tackle for loss every game, but they’ve also been good at forcing turnovers; in their last game against the Lions, the Riders' defence forced four turnovers against a struggling Lions offence.

The third factor? The Riders' offence as a whole. While the run game is practically its own thing, the Riders have lived by the arm of Trevor Harris for three of their wins. In each of those games, Trevor Harris threw for over 200 yards and at least a touchdown pass; in two of them, he threw for multiple touchdown passes. Should the Calgary secondary get to Trevor Harris early and often, the run game will have to be 100% of the offence almost immediately. If neither can get going, then let’s just say it's going to be a long night. 

With the Blue Bombers on their last bye of the season, this game is going to be pivotal for divisional positioning. If Saskatchewan can get the win, it would put them on course for a healthy divisional lead over Winnipeg; the two teams do not play until August 31st as part of the CFL’s Labor Day Weekend slate. If Calgary can get the win, it would put them in a position to not only earn a winning record in their critical slate, but it could also mark the next step in the Stampeders’ quest to return to the playoffs. 

With a rematch against Winnipeg coming in Week 7, this game is arguably more important for Calgary. While the Stampeders did handle business with Winnipeg in the Stampede Bowl, one does not want to deal with a Bombers team coming off of a loss, especially a blowout. And the one critical tiebreaker in Calgary’s possession could easily be nullified with a loss in Winnipeg in Week 7. That said, it will be important for Calgary to give themselves a cushion over Winnipeg, and this game presents an opportunity for that to be achieved. With the run game experiencing a high, combined with the defence experiencing success they rarely (if ever) had last season, I believe Calgary will ride into Mosaic Stadium, take advantage of a rollercoaster of a Riders defence, and claim a big win. 

The pick: Stampeders 20, Roughriders 10

Ottawa Redblacks (1-4) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-2):

On the subject of wild races, we’ve got a crucial East Division matchup taking place between the 1-4 Ottawa Redblacks and the 2-2 Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Ottawa is coming off of a 39-33 loss to the Edmonton Elks, while the Hamilton Tiger-Cats earned their second win of 2025 courtesy of a 51-38 win over the Toronto Argonauts. 

To say this game is crucial is simply a massive understatement. With the Argonauts on bye for Week 6 and set to get full-time starting quarterback Chad Kelly back into the lineup as early as Week 7, this is a chance for both teams to get some distance on the defending Grey Cup champions and to put themselves in strong positions as the season goes on. 

In terms of how important this game is for each team individually, this game is more of a must-win for the Redblacks. While a Tiger-Cats win would see Hamilton into first place in the East Division, a Redblacks win basically earns Ottawa an early lifeline. Currently sitting in last in the East Division with a record of 1-4, the Redblacks are just two games behind Montreal for first and one behind Hamilton for second. However, Ottawa has lost both games against East Division opposition so far. Those games were a Week 2 loss against Montreal and a Week 4 loss to Toronto. A loss to Hamilton in Week 5 would not only put Ottawa in a deep hole - they would have a 1-5 record - but it would also mean Ottawa’s season basically depends on a Week 7 rematch against Hamilton at TD Place. 

That said, Ottawa has the pieces to win this game. Quarterback Dru Brown returned to action for the Redblacks in Week 5; despite the offence short-circuiting at times, Dru Brown was able to throw for 315 yards and two touchdowns, while averaging just shy of 8 yards per pass. The run game also looked strong once again, amassing just shy of 100 yards while averaging six yards per carry. 

Therefore, there should be no doubt that Ottawa can move the ball. If they weren’t able to move the ball, their current situation might be a lot more serious than it is right now. 

The big issue for the Redblacks? The defence. Outside of the twelve points they gave up on a very rainy day in Calgary back in Week 3, the Redblacks have given up a lot of points. In Week 1, they gave up 31 to Saskatchewan. Week 2 saw the Redblacks give up 39 points to Montreal. Week 4 was another disaster class; the Redblacks gave up 29 points to a previously dysfunctional Argos offence. And now Week 5, which saw the Redblacks' defence give up 39 points to Edmonton’s potent offence. 

On top of that, Ottawa’s defence has given up at least 300 yards in four of their first five games (the Redblacks defence gave up 299 yards in the Argos game).

And now, the Redblacks defence has to contend with a Hamilton offence that just dumped 51 points, six touchdowns, and over 400 yards of offence on the Argos. Tiger-Cats quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell is also second in the CFL in passing yards with 1,219 while leading the league in passing touchdowns with nine to his name. And his new teammate Kenny Lawler leads the CFL in rushing yards and receiving touchdowns; the former Winnipeg Blue Bomber has 483 rushing yards and five receiving touchdowns to his name. Kenny Lawler also is third in the league in terms of receptions with 24, while also being the second-most targeted receiver in the league with 38 pass attempts thrown to him by Bo Levi Mitchell. 

Overall, this looks like it is going to be a game consisting of a lot of offence. While Ottawa should keep pace in this regard, it is going to take inclement conditions, a herculean effort, and then some for the defence to even slow down the Hamilton offence. Ultimately, the first of this double-header will belong to the Tiger-Cats, and Ottawa will look to secure the second game on home turf.

The pick: Tiger-Cats 37, Redblacks 23     

B.C Lions (2-3) vs Edmonton Elks (1-3): 

Talk about a clutch victory.

The offence looked out of sorts at times. 146 penalty yards were accumulated. But the B.C. Lions still found a way to beat the Montreal Alouettes 21-20 on a last-second field goal, ending their three-game losing streak. 

With the losing streak over, Nathan Rourke and Co. will look to get back to .500 when they head to Edmonton to take on an Elks team that won in June/July for the first time since the 2022 season. 

And boy, it was a clutch win for Edmonton. 

Despite going up 22-3 late in the second quarter, Ottawa drove down the field to score a touchdown to cut the lead to 22-10; this was followed up by a punt return that went for a touchdown to cut the lead to 22-17. But even though Ottawa was able to get a field goal on the board early in the third to make it a 22-20 game, this was as close as the Redblacks would get to tying the game; Edmonton responded to that drive with a 74-yard rushing touchdown courtesy of running back Justin Rankin. In the end, Edmonton did just enough to beat the Ottawa Redblacks 39-33, earning their first win of the 2025 season. 

While Edmonton needed that win badly, the team’s performance against Ottawa gives me doubts about picking them against B.C.

For one, even though the defence played better at times on Sunday, they still gave up over 400 yards of net offence throughout the game; 316 of those yards would come through the pass attack. That is not promising in the slightest as Nathan Rourke threw for over 350 yards and a touchdown against a star-studded Alouettes defence. 

The good news? Whatever B.C. throws at Edmonton in terms of offence, Edmonton can throw right back. Against Montreal, the Lions' defence gave up 120 rushing yards against a much-improved Alouettes run game. That is promising because Edmonton’s strengths lie in the run game - the same run game that ran for 140 yards and a touchdown against Ottawa. On top of all that, Edmonton did prove they could respond to scoring runs in their game against the Redblacks; whether they can do it again vs the Lions remains to be seen. However, considering that Dru Brown and Nathan Rourke are both capable passers, the Elks' defence should be in for a similar test in Week 6. 

Like the other two games this week, there is a lot on the line in this matchup. Not only is Edmonton just a game back of B.C. for fourth in the West Division, but this is also the last time these two teams play each other until the second to last week of the season. In addition, courtesy of B.C’s Week 1 win over Edmonton, a Lions win on Sunday would guarantee B.C. the head-to-head tiebreaker in the standings. 

That’s also a major reason why this is more of a must-win for Edmonton. And there are plenty of reasons to pick them to win this game. That said, there’s also a lot going in B.C’s favour, which makes this a game that could easily go either way. I don’t see a way to separate these teams offensively, but I am a little more confident in the Lions to get big stops. For that reason, I think B.C. is going to pull off another clutch victory, this time over the Edmonton Elks. 

The pick: Lions 33, Elks 30

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Article written by Noah Guttman