CFL Week 7 Predictions: Big games could define Eastern hierarchy, and is an upset brewing in Vancouver?

As the first third of the 2025 CFL season approaches its end, it is clear that things look far different than they did this time last season. With the script being rewritten by the week, can Calgary continue their hot start on the road in Winnipeg? Will we see further hierarchical shakeup out East? Or do the league’s backmarkers fall further back?

(Image Credit to Bob Butrym/RFB Sport Photography)

Last week, I went 3-0 with my weekly picks, getting every single prediction correct for week 6. As a result, I now find myself with a 13-10 record on the season, and as I got the last game of week 5 right, I’m now on a four-game correct pick streak. 

Can I get that to eight this week? We’ll see. But here are the picks I believe are going to get me there.

Toronto Argonauts (1-4) vs Montreal Alouettes (3-2):

Let’s call this one “The Battle of the Losing Streaks.” Both the Toronto Argonauts and Montreal Alouettes will be coming out of their bye week looking to end their respective losing streaks in the Week 7 opener. 

Toronto’s week 5 loss was a 51-38 decision against a resurgent Hamilton Tiger-Cats team. Despite the offence having arguably its best showing so far this season, which was buoyed by quarterback Nick Arbuckle throwing for 339 yards and two touchdowns, the defence still gave up seven total touchdowns and over 400 yards of offence in what was clearly its worst showing so far this season. 

As for Montreal, they at least played their 21-20 loss to the B.C. Lions a lot closer, ultimately losing on a last-second field goal kick from Lions kicker Sean Whyte. Despite the loss, the run game looked a lot better than it did the previous week against Hamilton, gaining 120 yards on the ground against the Lions defence. And backup quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson looked better too, passing for almost 200 yards and two touchdowns against a penalty-prone Lions secondary.

Like in their week 1 encounter, the matchup that I think is going to play a big role in deciding this contest is the Argos pass rush against the Alouettes passing game. Despite losing that game 28-10, Toronto’s pass rush played exceptionally well against Montreal’s offensive line, sacking quarterback Davis Alexander three times while forcing one interception. Across the entire season, the Argos defensive line has looked just as sharp despite the 1-4 record. Their strength is reinforced by the fact that Argos defensive lineman Andrew Chatfield leads the league in sacks with five quarterback sacks to his name. In addition, as a whole, the Argos defence has put up some strong numbers throughout the season; not only has the Argos defence been able to get to the quarterback consistently, as they have been able to record multiple sacks in four of their first five games, but they have been able to force at least one turnover in three of their first five games of the season. 

The big problem with Toronto leaning on their defence? When it’s not getting consistent quarterback sacks and turnovers, it’s giving up points. A lot of them. They are dead last in the league for points allowed with 163 and they have only given up less than 20 points in one of their opening five contests, which was in their week 4 win over the Ottawa Redblacks. It’s worth noting that performance was immediately followed up by one where the defence gave up 51 points to a Bo Levi Mitchell-led Tiger-Cats team. 

While the Alouettes defence is star-studded and capable of having big games, it has been a little bit of a rollercoaster ride for them as well. While they did give up just 28 points in their first two games, they’ve given up 84 in the three games since. But the big concern is that they give up passing yards. A lot of them. The Alouettes defence has given up at least 250 yards in three of their first five games, while two of those games has seen opposing quarterbacks pass for at least 300 yards. And since they’ll be going up against an Argos passing game that has averaged almost 300 yards in their first five games, the Alouettes pass rush will have to be at the top of its game. At the same time, Alouettes defensive coordinator Noel Thorpe will have to come up with a scheme that either forces a quick pass or a run play; the latter matchup would immediately favour Montreal’s run defence. 

I could see this game going one of two ways: either both defences play to their strengths and we see very few points scored at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium. Or, both offences come to play and this becomes a game decided in the final few minutes. 

While a potential return for Alouettes quarterback Davis Alexander could tip the scales to favour Montreal, I don’t think the starting quarterback that is chosen by Montreal will change the outcome of this game much. If anything, like in Week 1, the Argos passing game is likely going to outgain that of Montreal regardless of whether it’s Nick Arbuckle or Chad Kelly getting the nod. Unless multiple turnovers are committed, I see the Argonauts leveling their season series with Montreal and gaining a crucial victory in what is becoming a much closer East Division race.

The pick: Argonauts 33, Alouettes 20  

Calgary Stampeders (4-1) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-1):

I’m going to say it right now. 

The Calgary Stampeders are the best team in the CFL right now. 

And after walking into Mosaic Stadium and beating the Saskatchewan Roughriders 24-10, they now sit atop the West Division and the CFL as a whole with a 4-1 record. 

Their next game is a rematch of the Week 5 Stampede Bowl that saw them demolish the Winnipeg Blue Bombers by a score of 37-16. A win would not only see Calgary maintain their place atop the West but they would also secure the season series against Winnipeg, giving them a potentially-massive advantage in their quest to return to the playoffs.

But to fully grasp the importance of this game, let’s first try to understand what went wrong for Winnipeg in that Stampede Bowl. 

Spoiler alert: a good bit went wrong for Winnipeg. 

While they were able to move the ball down the field consistently, it wasn’t in the way Winnipeg is used to. Usually, Winnipeg will move the ball by either jamming it down the throats of the defensive line as part of a ground attack that can easily get over 6 yards per carry, or by leaning on the arm of Zach Collaros and throwing it deep down the field for quick scores. But against Calgary, the Blue Bombers were forced on excruciatingly long drives filled with short yard plays, many of which ended in punts or field goals. 

And despite Zach Collaros throwing for almost 300 yards, the Stampeders forced him to throw two pick sixes that blew the game off its hinges. On top of that, two turnovers on downs ended any hope of a comeback or even to simply put scoring drives together. 

And all of the above was true last week when Calgary played Saskatchewan. Despite a rough start that saw the Stampeders turn the ball over in each of their first two drives, the Calgary defence stood tall; after forcing a field goal try and then a punt, Calgary was down just 3-0 midway through the first.

That would be the only time Calgary trailed all afternoon. A late-quarter touchdown drive, followed by some more impressive defensive efforts and a late-second-quarter touchdown throw by Vernon Adams Jr., put Calgary up two scores heading into halftime. The second half would see Calgary hold off a surge from Saskatchewan and force two turnovers on downs, a couple of punts, and two field goal misses to maintain a two-score lead. 

If Winnipeg is to win this game, they are going to have to break the Calgary defence. However, that is going to be easier said than done. 

Running the ball could be an option as the Bombers have arguably the best running back in the CFL in the form of Brady Oliveira. Then again, the Stampeders did hold Riders running back A.J Ouellette, the former league leader in terms of rushing yards, to just nine yards on the ground; Saskatchewan could only rush for 16 total yards against Calgary.

I did also say before that Calgary made Winnipeg go on long excruciating drives several times throughout the game, which played a role in Calgary’s ability to stay ahead. That said, longer passes did work for Winnipeg in the Stampede Bowl, as five Blue Bombers had completions of at least 10 yards. 

So Winnipeg’s best option could be to try and stretch the Calgary defence in the hopes of forcing longer completions and moving the ball at a quicker pace. 

Ultimately, I could see an angry and rested Winnipeg team being an issue for Calgary throughout this rematch. This game will therefore be closer than the Stampede Bowl, but it is still going to be one that is decided on the defensive side of the ball. If Winnipeg can be smart with the ball and if the defence can force mistakes from the Stampeders offence, then the recipe for success is there. 

While logic and strategy may allow for a prediction in favour of Winnipeg, I’ve seen enough on-field evidence to tell me that Calgary is playing really good football right now. Beating Winnipeg in the Stampede Bowl should allow for some confidence going into this rematch, and I think Calgary will get the win in a closely-fought rematch with the Blue Bombers. 

The pick: Stampeders 30, Blue Bombers 25

Saskatchewan Roughriders (4-1) vs B.C. Lions (3-3):

I guess we just saw what Saskatchewan looks like when the offence isn’t churning out 30 points per game. 

Now yes, Saskatchewan was missing all of their top three receivers in their 24-10 loss to the Calgary Stampeders, but they still had A.J Ouellette to carry much of the offensive load. 

He only had 58 receiving yards and just nine yards on the ground. 

If not for Roughriders receiver Joe Robustelli stepping up and getting 191 receiving yards and a touchdown, in addition to the early Stampeder turnovers, this game could have been a lot uglier. 

The Riders are going to have to find a way to get rid of that bitter taste as they travel west to Vancouver to take on a B.C. Lions team coming off of a dominant 32-14 victory over the Edmonton Elks. With the Lions’ victory over the Elks, not only is B.C. well within the West Division playoff race, but a win over Saskatchewan would see B.C. equal the Riders’ point total after seven weeks. 

And I think B.C. should be the favourite here. 

The main reason I’m backing this claim? Nathan Rourke. Since his return against the Montreal Alouettes, the Canadian quarterback has thrown for almost 700 yards in two game; Rourke has also recorded three passing touchdowns over that span. While he has missed just shy of half of the Lions’ games so far this season, it is clear that Nathan Rourke is looking very comfortable back with the Lions’ offence after a few seasons away.

But what is likely going to be the X-factor in this game is the Lions offensive line. That offensive line has been a big reason why Nathan Rourke has worked wonders in his first full season back in the CFL; by shifting the pocket hold off the defensive line, Nathan Rourke is therefore given valuable time to decide whether to get the ball downfield or to run. And their efforts have shown in the three wins B.C. has put on the board so far in 2025; despite giving up a sack and an interception (by no fault of their own) in the Week 6 game against Edmonton, the Lions’ offensive line has given up just three sacks and two interceptions over the course of their team’s three wins on the season. Even in the one Nathan Rourke-led loss (the Lions’ two other losses came when Rourke was injured) in Week 2 against Winnipeg, the offensive line only gave up one sack and two total interceptions. 

And against a Riders defence that is capable of forcing turnovers but incapable of keeping opposing offences off the scoreboard, one can reason that the Lions defence has a winnable matchup on their hands. As long as the offensive line can buy Nathan Rourke enough time to make plays, another strong game should be on their hands. 

Unlike in the Week 4 matchup, Saskatchewan is going to be dealing with Nathan Rourke as the Lions’ starting quarterback. And as I highlighted above, the Riders are going to have their hands full against him. Even if the Riders’ offence does bounce back from last week, I cannot see how the defence keeps a confident Lions’ offence off the board. I’m taking the Lions to even the season series up with Saskatchewan and to continue to keep pace in an increasingly wild West Division.

The pick: Lions 34, Roughriders 21

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (3-2) vs Ottawa Redblacks (1-5):

Oh how things can change in a year. 

Last year, after their first six games, Ottawa found themselves at 4-2 and right in the thick of an early-season playoff race. 

And just about a year later, after six weeks, the Ottawa Redblacks are 1-5 and facing a playoff-level matchup at home against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, who they lost to in their last game by a score of 23-20. 

To say that this game is a must-win for Ottawa is an extreme understatement. Losing this game means Ottawa loses the head-to-head tiebreaker to Hamilton, they fall to 0-4 against divisional opponents, and that they would essentially have to win out against the division just to try and make up some ground. 

Yes, I know this could be a little bit of an overreaction and for a few reasons too. For one, they did lose Dru Brown to injury for three games, of which one of them was their lone win against Calgary. In addition, three of their losses were by less than a score: their 31-26 loss in Week 1 to Saskatchewan, their 39-33 loss to Edmonton in Week 5, and now their 23-20 loss to Hamilton in Week 6. 

However, to contradict myself, the Redblacks were down by at least two scores in both of the Saskatchewan and Edmonton games and they did rally just to get it to a one-score game against both of those opponents. 

The worst part about that second reason? The Redblacks led for the vast majority of the game against Hamilton and had a four-point lead with just over two minutes left to play. Had they held on, this conversation might be sounding a lot differently. 

Instead, the Redblacks are 1-5 and heading back to TD Place with their season basically on the line. 

But instead of focusing on the negative, I’ll be shaping this preview around the positive side of Ottawa’s Week 6 encounter against Hamilton and how those can be reinforced heading into the Week 7 rematch. 

For one, the offense was once again able to move the ball. This was especially true for the passing game; quarterback Dru Brown threw for 283 yards and a touchdown. In addition, veteran receiver Eugene Lewis proved why Ottawa went and brought him into the fold over the offseason as he caught 7 passes for 128 yards. However, it was clear that the entire offense came to play; with each player contributing, Ottawa succeeded in maintaining a lead throughout the vast majority of the game.

The problem for the offence? The turnovers, all four of which crippled any advantage Ottawa had throughout the game. One interception ended a promising drive that would’ve seen Ottawa score in some form, while another stopped the Redblacks from building a two-score lead. A muffed punt put Hamilton in position to score midway through the fourth; this attempt was stopped by the Redblacks defence. And a turnover on downs ended a potential game-winning drive for a Redblacks offence that was moving down the field during the last two minutes. 

While the Redblacks offence did end up costing the team a shot at victory, one can make the argument that the Ottawa defence played a slightly better game than the Hamilton defence. This could be seen through the fact that, unlike against Toronto, Hamilton’s offence couldn’t get into a consistent rhythm at all throughout the game. Mistakes and broken first-down plays consistently put Hamilton in unfavourable second-down situations, many of which led to punts. 

At the same time, the Redblacks still couldn’t find all the answers to opposing air attacks; the defence would still oftentimes get torched on longer conversions and lose key matchups when defending the pass. 

With the Ottawa Redblacks past the first-third of their season, it’s clear that they are slowly but surely starting to fall out of the playoff race. Like I said before, this game against Hamilton is very likely the last chance Ottawa will have for almost a month to change the direction of the playoff battle. Winning this game will be a lifeline heading into a Week 8 bye, losing it could likely condemn Ottawa to a long three months before the 2025 season comes to a close. 

The Redblacks have clearly improved over the two games since Dru Brown returned from injury, and last week's game against Hamilton might just be the team’s best effort since Week 1. The big question: can Ottawa put it all together and get a crucial win on the board?

My answer: I don’t know. 

I would love to pick the Redblacks to even the season series with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, but they would need to play a perfect game in order to do so. And as evidenced last week, I don’t know if they can put together a perfect game in time. For that reason, alongside the aforementioned analysis, I am playing it safe and taking the Hamilton Tiger-Cats to earn their fourth-straight win. 

The pick: Tiger-Cats 33, Redblacks 23

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Article written by Noah Guttman