CFL Week 9 Predictions: Coming off of a big upset win, Montreal returns home for another big game. Elsewhere, can Edmonton and Ottawa save their seasons?

As the calendar flips to August, teams like the Saskatchewan Roughriders will be looking to start to push towards a playoff berth, while others like the Ottawa Redblacks need to start putting wins together to even have a chance at meaningful football in October. Week 9 will be key in both of those storylines, with four inter-conference matchups set to define who the contenders and the pretenders of the CFL are. 

(Image Credit to The Canadian Press/Jeff McIntosh)

With every CFL team having played one-third of their 2025 slate so far, early-season trends have become much clearer and we can start to see a picture of what the playoff battle could look like. Out West, Saskatchewan and Calgary run the show, while Winnipeg and BC are looking to keep pace. And despite sitting outside the playoff picture at 1-5, Edmonton has played two games less than BC in fourth and could get themselves back into the playoff battle with their upcoming run of games against the East. 

In the East, Hamilton and Montreal are tied for the division lead, but the Tiger-Cats have the head-to-head tiebreaker courtesy of their Week 4 matchup. And while Toronto only just earned their second win of the season to put themselves back on the map, Ottawa is in desperate need of a victory just to turn their season around. 

While there are no intra-divisional matchups this week, both Toronto-Winnipeg and Hamilton-Edmonton could easily change the complexity of the crossover battle, making Week 9’s games all the more important.

Before I preview those games, it’s time to recap Week 8’s action. Last week, I went 2-2 with my weekly predictions as I correctly predicted the matchups between the Roughriders and Elks and the Tiger-Cats and Lions, while missing the mark on Montreal’s win over Calgary and Toronto’s win over Winnipeg. My record predicting this season’s games now stands at 17-14 as a result. 

Now with all of that said, let’s preview the four games on the Week 9 slate:

Calgary Stampeders (5-2) vs Ottawa Redblacks (1-6):

At some point, the Ottawa Redblacks will have to get something done if they are to try and salvage their season. 

Their next attempt to do so will come against the Calgary Stampeders, a team that is coming off of a dramatic 23-21 loss marked by the departure of Vernon Adams Jr late in the game due to a concussion. 

To justify the slim chances Ottawa will have at victory, let’s recap the Redblacks' Week 3 win over those same Calgary Stampeders. With Dustin Crum named as the starter in that rainy game, the Redblacks dominated the ground game with 239 yards of rushing offence, allowing Ottawa to keep Calgary off the field for longer stretches of time. Combined, that represents a key part of their 20-12 victory in Calgary.

But this time figures to be different. While Calgary quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. was listed as questionable after exiting his team’s game against Montreal with a concussion, the weather forecast looks to be far more favourable for Calgary. Nonetheless, Ottawa’s game plan shouldn’t change too much; emphasising the ground game could allow for the Redblacks to go on longer drives, keep Calgary’s offence off the field, and keep the clock moving. 

The one problem? That’s based on their game plan from Week 3, which worked so well because the rain essentially cancelled out any advantage in the pass attack that Calgary had. 

So in theory, no rain = no problem for Calgary in getting the ball down the field quickly.

Even if Ottawa can get the ground game going, it’s another story with regard to the defence. Despite forcing a turnover in Week 7 against Hamilton, the Redblacks' defence, particularly the secondary, had no answer for the Tiger-Cats' receiving corps. This is also the same defence that has given up at least 30 points in four of their seven games played so far this season. 

While Ottawa should be a little more competitive against the one opponent they have defeated so far this season, the elimination of any wet-weather advantage and a porous defence will keep the Redblacks from winning this game. Calgary will secure the victory, leaving Ottawa at 1-7 and their playoff hopes on life support. 

The pick: Stampeders 33, Redblacks 15

Toronto Argonauts (2-5) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-3):

I am not going to lie, there is a serious chance the Toronto Argonauts sweep this home-and-home with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

In the first game, the Argonauts were able to pull away quite quickly despite being down 10-9 at one point; sixteen unanswered points saw the Argos up 25-10 at halftime. Despite the Bombers' defence being able to sack Nick Arbuckle five times and force a fumble (which became one of Winnipeg’s two touchdowns on the afternoon), it generally had no answer for everything that Toronto threw at them. Whether it was a trick play from returner Janarion Grant or big passing plays from Nick Arbuckle, Winnipeg’s defence was dominated by Toronto in most metrics. 

It wasn’t just the defence. Outside of a 46-yard pass to Nic Demski, Zach Collaros struggled to get the offence going, only getting it far enough for a first-quarter field goal. To make matters worse, not only did he throw two interceptions, but he also left the game after the first half for reasons unknown. 

While Chris Streveler did a little better in terms of moving the ball down the field, he was only able to get one touchdown on the board. And with the Argos putting up six points in the second half, it essentially rendered Streveler’s efforts useless in the final outcome of the game; a 31-17 victory for the Toronto Argonauts. The win sees Toronto solidify their hold on third place in the East Division, while Winnipeg 

While the ability for Toronto’s defence to solve this Winnipeg offence is well-known, as the Argonauts are 4-0 in their last four meetings with the Blue Bombers, the X-factor for this game will be the Winnipeg offence and whether it can rebound from a tough outing.

To that, I say Winnipeg has to find a way to limit the turnovers. This could be achieved by running the ball more often as a means to reduce the risk of turning it over via interception, which has been a key issue for Winnipeg in both the Grey Cup 111 and in Week 8. 

But even if the offence can get going, the Blue Bombers’ secondary is yet another key issue that has held the team back for much of the season, particularly against Toronto. They’ve only held an opponent under 250 passing yards once during their first six games, and they’ve conceded ten passing touchdowns during that span. It’s also worth noting that seven of those passing touchdowns came during the Blue Bombers’ recent losing streak. 

While Chad Kelly did just get placed on the six-game injured list, the Argonauts should feel confident in starting Nick Arbuckle against the Blue Bombers. He’s now won his last two games against Winnipeg in dominant fashion; unless Winnipeg brings a completely different game plan into this rematch, I cannot see a world where the Blue Bombers have an answer for this Toronto team. I’m taking Toronto to get the upset and to continue to build momentum ahead of a critical Week 10 encounter with Ottawa. 

The pick: Argonauts 30, Blue Bombers 16

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (5-2) vs Edmonton Elks (1-5):

In my opinion, the Elks’ matchup against Saskatchewan, a 21-18 loss, had some good news and some bad news attached to it.

The good news: 2023 Grey Cup winning quarterback Cody Fajardo looked serviceable in his Elks debut. Even against a formidable Roughrider defence, the former Montreal Alouette threw for almost 350 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for another twenty. 

The bad news: the offensive line wasn’t serviceable and granted back-breaking defensive stops at the worst possible times. Eight sacks, yes, eight sacks for sixty-four yards lost crippled any momentum Edmonton had, especially late in the game, where two of them kept the Elks from at least tying the game. 

While the Elks do sit at 1-5, their season isn’t exactly over yet. With the BC Lions and Winnipeg Blue Bombers struggling to put wins together, in consideration with the struggles of Toronto and Ottawa, there is still plenty of time for Edmonton to try and salvage their season. 

But the importance of this game against Hamilton cannot be understated. Firstly, it is the first of four straight games played against East Division opposition; the remainder of that slate can be seen below:

At Montreal (Week 10)

Vs Toronto (Week 11)

At Ottawa (Week 12)

When considering the home-and-home Edmonton plays against Calgary following this stretch (the first game is on Labour Day), six of Edmonton’s next eight games are against East Division foes. 

That could be an advantage for an Edmonton team looking to get their season going. Not only is Toronto the next in line for the final playoff spot should BC fall out of the crossover, but the Elks could also clinch the season series against Ottawa. Let’s not forget that the Elks also made their first encounter against Montreal a close one in the later stretches of the game. 

However, they not only have to go at least 2-2 in their next four games, but they also have to keep Cody Fajardo as the starting quarterback for the time being. While he couldn’t bring Edmonton to victory against Saskatchewan, as I stated before, the loss shouldn’t be placed on his shoulders. 

But if Edmonton is to beat a Hamilton Tiger-Cats team that has won their last five games, they need to find a way to keep pace with a red-hot Hamilton offence. 

That same offence proved that they don’t need to rely solely on Kenny Lawler to win games; receivers Kiondre Smith and Tim White both made big plays to keep Hamilton in the game against BC, while Kenny Lawler was fourth in receiving yards with just 29 yards on two catches. 

With the Edmonton defence unable to prove that they can consistently slow down opposing offences (while they did limit Saskatchewan to just 21 points, they have also given up more than thirty points in five of their first six games), Cody Fajardo is going to have to lean on his playmakers to keep up with an explosive Hamilton offence that has put up at least 30 points in four of their five consecutive wins.

I could see this being a high-scoring game with both teams trading blows early in the game. However, regardless of the direction of the game, I think Edmonton will struggle to gain the upper hand on this Tiger-Cats team. Cody Fajardo will have another strong game, but like with Saskatchewan, Hamilton takes advantage of Edmonton’s offensive line and defensive struggles to win their sixth-straight game. 

The pick: Tiger-Cats 39, Elks 30

Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-1) vs Montreal Alouettes (5-2):

Another week, another potential Grey Cup preview. 

This time, the Montreal Alouettes, coming off of a dramatic 23-21 upset victory over the Calgary Stampeders, play host to the Saskatchewan Roughriders, who reclaimed first place in the West Division after a 21-18 win over the Edmonton Elks. 

Despite missing both Davis Alexander and Tyson Philpot to injury, with the former landing on the six-game injured list, the Alouettes were still able to grind out a close victory. Their efforts were led by a strong defensive effort that kept a resurgent Stampeders offence at bay, while holding it scoreless in the fourth quarter. 

That said, any hope of a bounce-back effort for the run game should be put on hold for this game. This is because the Saskatchewan Roughriders just held one of the league’s better rushing attacks to just 25 yards; the Riders’ defence has conceded more than 100 rushing yards just twice all season. And considering the strength of the Riders’ pass rush, the Alouettes’ best chance at victory is going to have to come through quick passes to the likes of Cole Spieker and Austin Mack and a reliance on yards after the catch. 

Offensively, despite putting up just 21 points, the Roughriders' offence looked strong against an Edmonton defence that did a good job keeping their team in the game until the last few minutes. Trevor Harris threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns, while averaging over 8 yards per completion, with Samuel Emilus and KeeSean Johnson catching his touchdown throws. 

While I have voiced my concerns about McLeod Bethel-Thompson at quarterback for Montreal, his performance against Calgary gives me a little bit of optimism that he can perform once again against Saskatchewan. As long as the Alouettes stay away from the run game, a scheme the Roughriders thrive against, they should have a chance at winning this game. 

Ultimately, this game is going to come down to whether the Roughriders' offence can continue to finish off their drives and move the ball down the field in a consistent manner. Outside of the Calgary game, there hasn’t been much proof to indicate that this will be the case, so I am going to back the Riders to take the win against Montreal and improve to 7-1. 

The pick: Roughriders 33, Alouettes 26

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Article written by Noah Guttman