Club World Cup Preview: Are European clubs set to dominate? Or can clubs like Inter Miami and Al Hilal make their mark?

With the Club World Cup taking on a new format, we will be seeing the best clubs of each confederation go head-to-head to decide which one is on top. But does the large proportion of European clubs in the tournament create a significant imbalance in their favour? Or can we see the likes of Inter Miami go on a run?

(Image Credit to: ESPN)

The latest edition of the FIFA Club World Cup is set to begin in earnest on July 14th, as Inter Miami play host to Al Ahly, the reigning title holders in the Egyptian Premier League. I’m going to be breaking down each of the groups, previewing some of the key storylines, and then giving my final prediction as to how the groups will shake out when all is said and done. 

And yes, I am more than prepared for this prediction to go sideways.

Group A: Al Ahly, Inter Miami, Palmeiras, FC Porto

In theory, Inter Miami is the favourite to advance from this group. With Lionel Messi in his third season with Inter Miami, having only a Leagues Cup trophy and an MLS Supporters Shield to his name, this could be his best and potentially last opportunity to win an international trophy with Inter Miami. 

The Herons also come into the tournament with a little bit of form going in their favour, having earned points in their last three games and in four of their last five games. That should grant the team a little bit of confidence in a very doable group. 

Their main challenger for the top spot in Group A comes in the form of FC Porto. Having come in third in this season’s Liga Portugal, bowed out of the Europa League in the playoff round, and having exited both domestic cup tournaments before the final, FC Porto will be looking to try and go on a surprise run in the Club World Cup in an effort to salvage an insignificant season. With the likes of Diogo Costa in the goalkeeper position, FC Porto could challenge for the top spot in the group and could even give Inter Miami a headache during their Matchday 2 encounter, allowing for the Dragons to potentially steal first place. 

Some may suggest that Palmeiras are destined to challenge Porto for the final knockout spot in Group A. However, losing two of their last four games might suggest otherwise; it is worth noting that this run comes as part of a 22-point effort so far in the Brazilian Série A. They will also have to worry about a charge from Al Ahly, who won the Egyptian Premier League with only one loss in their account from both the regular season and playoff phases. 

Regarding the final placement, one could suggest that this Inter Miami side will struggle in their matches against European opposition. However, Inter Miami’s players, particularly Lionel Messi, have experience playing against European squads and should be able to handle them in a tournament match. Outside of a potential slip-up against Porto, I don’t see how Inter Miami doesn’t advance from this group. I’ve got the Herons finishing first in this group, with Porto barely advancing over a strong Al Ahly team and a Palmeiras side that might only get a point or two. 

Predicted Group A finish:1. Inter Miami (7 points)

2. FC Porto (5 points)

3. Al Ahly (4 points)

4. Palmeiras (0 points)

Group B: PSG, Atletico Madrid, Seattle Sounders, Botafogo

At first glance, PSG and Atletico are the favourites, with PSG just earning the advantage on momentum. Coming off of a dominant win in the Champions League final, PSG will look to carry their confidence over to the Club World Cup, where a strong group stage performance could put them in a strong position to go on a run in the tournament and potentially win a fifth trophy this season. 

As for Atletico, while the team did finish third in La Liga, bow out of the Champions League in the last 16, and get eliminated in the Copa Del Rey semifinals by Barcelona, this is still a strong defensive side that could easily cause a team problems on both ends of the pitch. 

This group could go one of two ways. Either PSG and Atletico draw in their Matchday 1 encounter, giving Seattle Sounders, who have put some good results together to start their MLS campaign, a chance to control the outcome of Group B and potentially upset one of the two European giants. Or, regardless of the outcome in Matchday 1, both European powers dominate their group games and put Seattle on the back foot, allowing for them to cruise into the last sixteen. 

As for Botafogo? To me, they seem like the easy odd ones out. 

Predicted Group B finish:

1. PSG (9 points)

2. Atletico Madrid (4 points) (Atletico to advance on goal difference)

3. Seattle Sounders (4 points)

4. Botafogo (0 points)

Group C: Auckland City, Bayern Munich, Benfica, Boca Juniors

Undoubtedly, the favourites in this group are Bayern Munich. Coming off of a bounce-back season that saw them win the Bundesliga once again, with Harry Kane winning his first major trophy, the Bavarian side will look to add one more title to their collection before the summer. They also come into this match unbeaten in their last seven fixtures, so there should be some confidence in this group heading into their first group stage games. 

Their biggest threat in the group? Benfica. With that said, Bayern did beat Benfica already this season, defeating them 1-0 at the Allianz Arena in the Champions League league phase. 

For Benfica, they will have to contend with a Boca Juniors side that has had a roller coaster stretch as of recent; a recent winning run taking the team to the end of the first phase of the Argentine Primera División was followed up by a stretch of four games that saw Boca Juniors win just once. Still, with the likes of Nicolas Otamendi in tow, Benfica should be able to bounce back from a 3-1 loss in the Taca de Portugal Final and earn enough points to advance to the last 16. 

For the final placement of the teams in Group C, I see Bayern continuing their winning run and dominating this group; not being able to finish first will be seen as a failure to Bayern’s faithful. Benfica should come second, and Boca Juniors and Auckland City will be left to fight for the final points on offer. 

Predicted Group C finish: 

1. Bayern Munich (9 points)

2. Benfica (6 points)

3. Boca Juniors (1 point)

4. Auckland City (1 point)

Group D: Chelsea, ES Tunis, Flamengo, LAFC

I think Chelsea deserves a round of applause for the season they had. After two straight seasons of humiliating football, Chelsea have returned to the top-four of the Premier League. Buoyed by an attack led by the likes of Nicolas Jackson and Cole Palmer, if the team can use their Conference League win as fuel, then the Blues should power their way through this group and into a deep knockout stage run. 

And while they may have the best side on paper, they do have to contend with the likes of LAFC, who won a play-in game to get into the tournament after Club León was disqualified for ownership breaches. And LAFC are no pushovers. Not only did they win the MLS Cup three years ago, but they also boast the likes of Olivier Giroud and Denis Bouanga in their lineup. Flamengo won’t be an easy out either; they currently sit atop the Brazilian Série A and won the Copa Libertadores back in 2022. 

I say Chelsea finishes first in Group D, but barely. Considering that the average age of Chelsea’s roster is 23, they will be bound to make mistakes against non-European sides. The experience that came from winning the Conference League should help, and that will be a key factor that pushes Chelsea to the top in Group D. Elsewhere, Flamengo’s current form should make them strong contenders for the final place in the last 16, but LAFC will only just earn that spot on goal difference; I think LAFC’s attacking capabilities will give LAFC the edge when all is said and done even if Flamenco ends the group stage level on points. 

Predicted Group D finish:

1. Chelsea (7 points)

2. LAFC (4 points)

3. Flamengo (4 points)

4. ES Tunis (0 points)

Group E: Inter Milan, Monterrey, River Plate, Urawa Red Diamonds

Loads of eyes are going to be on Inter Milan to see how they respond to their devastating 5-0 loss to PSG in the Champions League final, especially with Monterrey in a position to pounce. While some may have Inter Milan winning the group over Monterrey based on experience, Monterrey does have some experience on their own. Not only will Sergio Ramos look to close out his football career with a Leagues Cup or a Club World Cup title, but Lucas Ocampos also brought his title-winning ways over from Sevilla. 

Ultimately, this group will come down to those two teams, who play each other on June 17th. While River Plate could benefit from not having to play Inter Milan until the final matchday, they won’t make much of a mark on the race for the knockout spots. I could see Monterrey winning the group if they are able to hold a demoralized Inter to a draw, and I think they can do just that. While Inter Milan will come second, they will be safely over the likes of River Plate and Urawa. 

Predicted Group E finish: 

1. Monterrey (7 points)

2. Inter Milan (7 points)

3. River Plate (3 points)

4. Urawa Red Diamonds (0 points)

Group F: Borussia Dortmund, Fluminense, Mamelodi Sundowns, Ulsan

In terms of European sides, Borussia Dortmund arguably has the easiest path out of the group stage. Not only do they have to worry about a continental superpower, but they also have strong form from the end of their season to carry into this Club World Cup. 

While Borussia Dortmund will win the group, I am actually going to back Mamelodi Sundowns to get into the last 16. Not only are they coming off of a South African league title, but they have only lost once in the last month. They will continue their positive form into the Club World Cup group stage and just beat Fluminense to the final knockout spot. 

Predicted Group F finish:

1. Borussia Dortmund (9 points) 

2. Mamelodi Sundowns (4 points)

3. Fluminense (2 points)

4. Ulsan (1 point)

Group G: Al Ain, Juventus, Manchester City, Wydad AC

This could be one of the more interesting groups in the tournament. Manchester City had a horrible season for Manchester City standards - relinquishing the Premier League to Liverpool, losing in the playoff round of the Champions League knockouts to Real Madrid, losing the FA Cup Final to Crystal Palace, and losing in the Carabao Cup to Tottenham. 

Stay humble indeed. 

Jokes aside, Manchester City is going to get going again. It’s not a question of if. But when. While the defence remains a concern, the scoring shouldn’t be a concern, especially if Erling Haaland turns up. 

Juventus could be a dark horse contender in the tournament. Their one problem? They draw way too much. While they only lost four times in the Serie A, they drew a whopping sixteen times. That said, they should earn enough points to qualify for the last 16 but they need to be very wary of who lies below. Specifically, Juventus will have to contend with two winning clubs in the form of Morocco’s Wydad Casablanca, the country’s most successful club, and Al Ain, who won the Asian Champions League last season. While they are both longshots to knock off Juventus, they could easily take a point off of the club and make things more difficult. 

I think Manchester City will win this group, but they may get drawn into a high-scoring affair or two. Juventus is in the best position of the other three clubs but they do play Manchester City on the final group stage matchday. Winning both of their games against Wydad and Al Ain will avoid any trouble on the final day. But if they drop a point? Then things could get really interesting. And as Juventus do drop points, I could see them just missing out on knockout stage football. However, I am going to play things safe and say that they only just survive on goal difference, with Wydad falling just short of pulling off an upset. 

Predicted Group G finish:

1. Manchester City (9 points)

2. Juventus (4 points)

3. Wydad AC (4 points)

4. Al Ain (0 points)

Group H: Al Hilal, Pachuca, Real Madrid, RB Salzburg

If any one group is going to be seen as the Group of Death, it’s Group H. Sure, you can make a case for Group B. But unlike in that group, every team here has a chance of getting through. 

Real Madrid are coming off of an underwhelming season; they relinquished the La Liga title to FC Barcelona, lost in the quarterfinals of the Champions League to Arsenal, and lost in the Copa Del Rey final to Barcelona. But with Xabi Alonso, who led Bayer Leverkusen to an unbeaten season in the Bundesliga and a DFB-Pokal title in 2023-24, set to make his Real Madrid managerial debut at the Club World Cup, we could see a resurgence from Los Blancos at the summer tournament. 

But first, they will have to contend with the likes of Al Hilal. While they did come second in the Saudi Pro League this season, they do have a treasure chest’s worth of superstars at their disposal, including striker Aleksandar Mitrovic, defender Joao Cancelo, and goalkeeper Yassine Bounou, who famously helped Morocco to a World Cup semifinal appearance back in 2022. If everyone is playing at 100%, they could easily go on a run in the Club World Cup and knock off some big name clubs. 

As for RB Salzburg, while their prospect pool is seemingly less competitive than it was a few years ago, they have consistently found themselves in the mix for the Austrian Bundesliga title. This is a title-contending side domestically, and I think they could challenge for a spot in the knockouts. 

For Pachuca, while they are not off to the best start domestically, they did win last year’s CONCACAF Champions Cup, so there is tournament-winning experience inside the squad. Like the other Mexican sides in this tournament, I could see the experience shining on this Pachuca side and allowing for the club to challenge for a spot in the last 16. 

Real Madrid and Al Hilal are the favourites to advance out of this group, but they are both going to be introducing new managers into their teams, which could allow for Salzburg and/or Pachuca to snatch points off of them. This could be a far closer and a far more competitive group than it looks on paper; I could see Real Madrid and Al Hilal slowly getting off the ground in this group, but in the end, both sides should advance to the knockouts, with Real Madrid winning the group. 

Predicted Group H finish:

1. Real Madrid (7 points) 

2. Al Hilal (5 points) 

3. Pachuca (2 points)

4. RB Salzburg (1 point)

Knockout stage predictions (in accordance with FIFA’s bracket layout):

Last 16: 

Inter Miami (winner Group A) vs Atletico Madrid (runner-up Group B):

Should this match happen, it would mean Luis Suarez, Inter Miami’s veteran striker, would be going up against his old team. While the defensive prowess of Atletico Madrid might be too much for the likes of Suarez, Lionel Messi, and other Miami stars, I can see Inter Miami getting the scoring they need to stay in this game. And I think they can pull off the upset too. 

Prediction: Inter Miami 3, Atletico Madrid 1

Bayern Munich (winner Group C) vs LAFC (runner-up Group D):

Both sides should find the back of the net in this potential showdown. However, this is going to come down to which side defends better, and I have to give that edge to Bayern Munich. 

Prediction: Bayern Munich 4, LAFC 2

Monterrey (winner Group E) vs Mamelodi Sundowns (runner-up Group F):

While Monterrey will be heavy favourites, whichever side finishes as the runner-up in Group F might just be playing with house money. That could lead to some close calls in this one, but I think Monterrey will survive in a defensive affair. 

Prediction: Monterrey 2, Mamelodi Sundowns 1

Manchester City (winner Group G) vs Al Hilal (runner-up Group H):

This could be a close one. While Manchester City will have the stronger attack, it is Al Hilal’s defence that will be the X-factor in this one, particularly with Yassine Bounou in goal. I see them keeping Al Hilal in the match, but Manchester City will win a scrappy affair. 

Prediction: Manchester City 2, Al Hilal 1

PSG (winner Group B) vs FC Porto (runner-up Group A):

This one looks like it is going to heavily favour PSG, and that will be the case as the Champions League holders get a big win to advance to the quarterfinals. 

Prediction: PSG 4, FC Porto 1

Chelsea (winner Group D) vs Benfica (runner-up Group C):

Both sides boast depth in terms of goalscoring, so I would not be surprised if both teams found the back of the net at some point in this game. While the experience of Benfica should shine, I see Chelsea, backed by a strong attack, getting through to the quarterfinals. 

Prediction: Chelsea 2, Benfica 1

Borussia Dortmund (winner Group F) vs Inter Milan (runner-up Group E):

This match would see Borussia Dortmund's momentum going up against a typically rock-solid Inter Milan defence. I see this going into extra time, with Inter Milan advancing in a penalty shootout. 

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 1, Inter Milan 1 (Inter Milan advances in extra time)

Real Madrid (winner Group H) vs Juventus (runner-up Group G):

While there may still be some adjustment to Xabi Alonso’s tactics, that won’t hurt Real Madrid’s chances much in this matchup as they make quick work of Juventus. 

Prediction: Real Madrid 3, Juventus 1

Quarterfinals:

Inter Miami vs Bayern Munich:

Once again, the goal-scoring should keep Inter Miami in this game. But the defensive advantage once again belongs to Bayern, and I think they will ride that once again, advancing to the semifinals. 

Prediction: Bayern Munich 4, Inter Miami 2

Monterrey vs Manchester City:

If Manchester City’s goal scoring looks strong at this stage, they should advance with ease. If not, then Monterrey should keep this close to the end. Ultimately, I see Manchester City getting by in a somewhat-tight contest.

Prediction: Manchester City 3, Monterrey 1

PSG vs Chelsea:

This should be a high-scoring affair, considering that both offenses are capable of scoring at will. However, I think PSG should still advance even when considering the youth on both sides. Chelsea will keep it close though. 

Prediction: PSG 3, Chelsea 2

Real Madrid vs Inter Milan:

This game will come down to whether Inter Milan can hold off a strong Real Madrid attack while getting some goals of their own. I don’t think that will be the case; Real Madrid will win this one with relative ease. 

Prediction: Real Madrid 3, Inter Milan 0

Semifinals:

Manchester City vs Bayern Munich: 

Once again, this should be a high-scoring affair, with both sides getting opportunities. While Manchester City could be the stronger side here, the momentum of Bayern Munich should get them the upset over Manchester City and a berth in the Club World Cup final. 

Prediction: Bayern Munich 3, Manchester City 1

PSG vs Real Madrid:

High-powered offence vs high-powered offence. And Kylian Mbappe vs his old team. That will be the story in this one. While that could give Mbappe the opportunity to shine, it could also lead to PSG zeroing in on him and keeping him off the scoresheet. That could limit some of Real Madrid’s scoring opportunities, making this a much closer affair. I think PSG can get it into extra time, but Real Madrid advances in the extra time period. 

Prediction: Real Madrid 3, PSG 2 (extra time)

Final:Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid: 

With Harry Kane lifting the Bundesliga trophy, the proverbial “trophyless” monkey is off the English strikers back. Can he carry that same confidence into this final? Having the monkey off of his back could be a game changer for his team, and they will use the increased confidence from Harry Kane to get past Real Madrid and win the Club World Cup.

Prediction: Bayern Munich 2, Real Madrid 1.

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Article written by Noah Guttman.