Early Preview of the European World Cup Qualifying Playoff

After eight months worth of opening-round action in the European section of World Cup qualifying, the matchups are set for the playoff tournament that will decide four of the final six spots in next summer’s international football tournament. While the games don’t kick off until March, it’s still worth completing an early preview of the matchups and projecting the winners of each playoff path.  

(Image Credit to Dan Istitene/ Getty Images)

That first round of qualifying was, well, something. 

From a handful of groups coming down to the final matchday, to the Faroe Islands’ outstanding performance in their qualifying group, the first round of Europe’s World Cup qualifying window set the stage for what ought to be an exciting playoff round. 

With Thursday’s draw setting the matchups for what will be the second round of European World Cup qualifying, let’s break down each of the four playoff paths and provide each with a projected final and final winner. 

Path A (Wales vs Bosnia and Herzegovina and Italy vs Northern Ireland)

The big storyline in this path? Italy.

No matter what happens elsewhere, Italy is going to be the central figure throughout this playoff. After their past two qualifying campaigns ended in heartbreak, there should be no more excuses for an Azzurri side looking to make it back to the World Cup for the first time in twelve years.

If they don’t advance, which would all but make their drought long enough to be eligible to start working towards its driver’s licence (in Canada), Wales is the second-favourite to do so. Wales will have home advantage throughout this playoff path, so expect the Welsh fans to bring their all against both Bosnia and Herzegovina and (should they advance) against one of Northern Ireland or Italy. 

As someone with Italian roots, I wouldn’t be surprised if Italy loses in the playoff semifinals yet again, however I do think they will advance to play a very good Wales side in the playoff final. 

Come to think of it, they’ll probably lose that game too. 

Path B (Ukraine vs Sweden and Poland vs Albania)

While Ukraine have been a formidable side for well over the past three years even in spite of political circumstances, I don’t think they’re the favourites to qualify. 

Don’t get me wrong, they will be a strong side and could easily find their way to the World Cup. However, none of the three sides they are set to face are walkovers. 

While one may joke about how Sweden, who recently appointed the memed-to-oblivion ex-Brighton manager Graham Potter, somehow walked into a playoff tournament they had no right being in, their national team is a strong one on paper, particularly in the attack. With four months separating this last window and the March World Cup playoffs, Sweden will have plenty of time to re-focus and prepare for their next push at a World Cup berth.

On the other end of the bracket, Poland will be looking to fend off an Albania side that is unbeaten in eight of their last nine matches. That Albanian side was also able to hold England to fewer than two goals in both of their World Cup qualifying encounters. 

With just under four months still to come before these matches are played, I am going to put forth an early final projection of Poland vs Sweden. That’s a game that could easily go either way; the Swedes could win with an attack fronted by Liverpool’s Alexander Isak and Arsenal’s Viktor Gyökores, while Poland could win with their experience and the leadership of national legend Robert Lewandowski. 

Path C (Slovakia vs Kosovo and Türkiye vs Romania)

Is the “Dua Lipa Effect” a thing in football?

Since Dua Lipa earned her Kosovan citizenship last August, the national team has lost just once over the next six matches. That form helped to power the national team to a playoff spot in a group where they could’ve easily finished in the bottom two slots. 

To those who might think this is just a one-off effect and me writing things for the sake of writing things, this assumption isn’t exactly a stretch. 

Let’s look at Liverpool. Since Dua Lipa officially announced her fandom in 2018, the Reds have been to two Champions League finals, won the Premier League twice, won two League Cups and an FA Cup. They’ve also only failed to qualify for the Champions League once. 

Pop culture references aside, the Kosovan national team is enjoying some good form and they could ride it to a strong run in this playoff tournament. And considering that they would host the playoff final should they beat Slovakia in the semifinal, one would be wise to consider Kosovo’s chances in this playoff tournament, even though they don’t seem like the big name poised to emerge. 

At the same time, the Türkiye vs Romania match is, to say the least, incredibly enticing. While Türkiye is arguably the favourite, considering that they have what is arguably one of the strongest attacks of all the playoff teams, Romania is enjoying some decent form. In their latest major international tournament, they finished first in Group E; their four points came from a dominant 3-0 win over Ukraine and a 1-1 draw over Slovakia. Despite losing in the last 16 to the Netherlands, they would follow up their performance at the 2024 Euros with a dominant Nations League performance. Here, Romania went unbeaten in a group of Kosovo, Cyprus, and Lithuania, while scoring 18 times and conceding just three times. 

Considering that Romania has not yet lost to Kosovo in their four total meetings, a Romania-Kosovo final could be favourable to the Romanians. While that game could arguably go either way considering the above argumentation, I do think it is the most likely playoff final matchup in this path.  

Path D (Czech Republic vs Republic of Ireland and Denmark vs North Macedonia)

Of the four European playoff paths, this is arguably the one where all four teams have a decent chance of making it to the World Cup. 

While Denmark will undoubtedly be feeling the sting of falling a few minutes short of automatic qualification, they should be motivated to get past the heartbreak and earn their third consecutive World Cup berth via the playoffs. 

That said, you could also make a case for the other three teams to qualify. Ireland has one of the youngest squads in international football, with the likes of Troy Parrott leading the way. Coming off of two straight wins, coming against Portugal and Hungary, to seal their playoff spot, Ireland will be coming into the playoffs with some momentum. Add in the fact that the final for this path will be played at the home venue of the winner of the Czech Republic-Ireland tie and there is some extra motivation for this Irish side to qualify for their first World Cup in well over twenty years. 

On the other hand, 

On the other side of the bracket, North Macedonia will be looking to take that next step and earn their first-ever World Cup berth after a 2022 qualifying run saw them upset Italy 1-0 in a playoff semifinal before falling 2-0 to Portugal in the playoff final that followed. A 7-1 defeat to Wales on the final day of the first round will sting, however that comes with the fact that Belgium would have had to collapse against Liechtenstein for the Wales-North Macedonia match to matter outside of seeding in the draw. The loss should also serve as motivation for the squad coming into the playoff tournament. 

At this point in time, I think the final is going to be contested between Ireland and Denmark; while the Danes will have a significant edge experience-wise, the Irish will have the backing of their home crowd, and that should be enough to take them to the World Cup. 

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Article written by Noah Guttman

© Noah Guttman 2025