Is Max Verstappen on Pole to Win the Drivers’ Championship?

With this weekend’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix set to conclude the 2025 Formula One season, Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, and Oscar Piastri all find themselves in play for the Drivers’ Championship. But is Max Verstappen the true favourite? Read below as I justify my prediction as to who will come out of Abu Dhabi with the Drivers’ Championship trophy.

(Image Credit to Formula One)

He was well over 100 points behind then-Drivers’ Championship leader Oscar Piastri after his home Grand Prix. 

Eight race weekends later, the gap to the lead has been reduced to just twelve. 

“Objects in mirror are closer than they appear.”

“Dread it. Run from it. Destiny still arrives.”

Whatever that flying car scene was in Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets that got turned into memes galore. 

Make whatever meme you will about Max Verstappen’s ongoing comeback bid, but it probably won’t do much to distract from the fact that he is well and truly back in this title fight. 

The math to win his fifth-straight title? Quite straightforward actually. 

So long as Max Verstappen outscores Lando Norris by thirteen points (a tie would favour Lando Norris even though all three drivers in contention are level on race wins) and Oscar Piastri fails to outscore Max Verstappen by six points or more, he would become World Champion for the fifth consecutive season. 

That said, some will understandably back Lando Norris courtesy of him being due for the title or even his recent run of form. And in reality, all Lando Norris needs to do to win the title is finish in the top three to eliminate any worry over a last-race collapse. 

Even then, Max Verstappen has a foothold. 

He will arguably have all the momentum heading into this title-decider, having outscored the championship leader (includes both Lando Norris’ and Oscar Piastri’s hold on the top spot) by about ninety points while also winning five of the eight races since Piastri took a thirty-one point championship lead (on Lando Norris) out of the Dutch Grand Prix weekend.

And historically, the math in three-way scenarios in season finales hasn’t exactly been friendly to the driver leading heading into the race. We all know about Sebastian Vettel’s last-race victory in a 2010 finale that saw a Ferrari pitwall error cost Fernando Alonso a shot at the title, however there have been five instances (including the 2010 finale) that saw the pre-finale leader of a three-way battle for the Drivers’ title lose their lead in the last race. 

And while Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are expected to be given equal treatment once more, the same “Papaya Rules” that arguably put Norris in position to win the title might just cost him his chance at the title. 

The moment that Oscar Piastri, who himself will undoubtedly enter the race wanting to fight for the title, goes against any last-minute team orders might just be the moment McLaren truly loses their grip on the Drivers’ Championship. 

Now that I think about it, the in-race math wouldn’t exactly support many variations of that scenario outside of pure spite; in a popular version that sees Max Verstappen in first, Oscar Piastri in third, and Lando Norris in fourth heading into the last-lap, a last-lap set of orders from Piastri’s race engineer Tom Stallard basically turn this into a team vs self situation, one that very well goes the team way as Oscar Piastri would still need to make up fifteen points to even be in position to win the title. 

That said, let’s bookmark this for post-race and off-season analysis should the need arise.

With this in mind, I’d like to note that I’m of the opinion that, sans Papaya Rules, this championship would be coming down to Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. While Red Bull will have the clear strategy advantage heading into Abu Dhabi (shoutout to Red Bull’s principal strategy engineer Hannah Schmitz for a safety car pitstop call that eventually pushed Max Verstappen up the grid and helped him in earning the win in Qatar), McLaren has had and will have the overall pace in their own car. 

And it could still be Lando vs Oscar. The two are only separated by eighteen points and a first-lap lead for Oscar Piastri could be all that is needed to throw the finale into complete disarray. 

And if McLaren succeeded in harnessing their pure pace rather than succeeding at doing their best Ferrari impression, they probably would’ve been guaranteed both titles by the time the calendar flipped back to the Middle East. And at one point in the season, the team was on pace for well over 1000 points. 

But alas, they left the door ajar for Max Verstappen after Monza, and the Dutchman succeeded in throwing it wide open. 

Now, it’s anyone’s game. Max Verstappen will look to complete what some may view as “Formula One’s version of 28-3” (Atlanta Falcons fans look away), Lando Norris will look to complete his ascent within McLaren from young upstart to World Champion, and Oscar Piastri will look to reclaim the top spot after losing it to Lando Norris in Mexico City. 

But Max Verstappen has all the momentum heading into this finale, and with the chance at becoming just the second driver to win five straight World Drivers’ Championships all but set on a platter, it might be time to hear the Dutch Lion roar once more. 

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Article written by Noah Guttman © Noah Guttman 2025