Out with the old, in with … the old. Why the Ottawa Redblacks desperately need change.

After a breakthrough 2024 season that saw the Ottawa Redblacks finish 9-8-1, the team has seemingly reverted right back to their old ways, losing six of their first seven games. Heading into a bye week, is it time to once again make a change to the coaching staff?

(Image Credit to Spencer Colby/ THE CANADIAN PRESS)

In 2018, the Ottawa Redblacks finished 11-7 and made it to their third Grey Cup in four years, ultimately losing 27-16 to the Calgary Stampeders.

Their head coach at the time? Rick Campbell. 

Remember that name. 

The next season, Ottawa went 3-15 and finished last in the East Division. Rick Campbell and the team parted ways following this season. 2021 saw the team finish 3-11 in a shortened season that was filled with struggles. 

2022? More of the same. While five of their first six losses were by just one score, they still found their way into an early hole once again. Three wins in their next five would alleviate concerns a little bit, but a three-game losing streak that followed saw Paul LaPolice fired as Redblacks head coach, replaced by Bob Dyce with just four games remaining. 

A win over Montreal on Canadian Thanksgiving would allow for some confidence in the new coaching staff, and with three games remaining, maybe a late-season playoff push. However, three straight losses against Montreal and Hamilton (in a home-and-home) meant that Ottawa would miss the playoffs for the third-consecutive season. 

But even with the late-season losing streak, the Redblacks would still get a clean slate of sorts heading into the following 2023 season. 

2023: Early success and blown leads galore

Despite starting the season 0-2 courtesy of losses to Montreal and Calgary, the Redblacks were able to win three of their next four games; the first of these wins was a 26-7 decision at home against the Edmonton Elks. 

It would be the other two wins that were the more significant ones. With all three quarterbacks ahead of him either injured or struggling to help the team win games, quarterback Dustin Crum was thrown right into the fire ahead of a Week 6 home encounter against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. But being down 25-6 ahead of the final quarter basically meant the Redblacks season was on the line. 

Yet that’s exactly when their season turned around for the better. 

A Lewis Ward field goal on the opening play of the fourth saw the Blue Bombers lead trimmed to 25-9, making the contest a two-score affair. This was followed up by a drive deep into Winnipeg territory, but was ultimately stopped on a turnover on downs. Even then, the Redblacks defence was able to force a fumble, with the offence quickly turning around and driving it as far as Winnipeg’s 17 yard line before handing it back to the Blue Bombers on downs. But that was quickly turned around for a pick-six and a late lifeline for Ottawa. 

25-17.

Another quick stop by the Redblacks defence forced a Winnipeg punt. This led to a 94-yard drive to score a late touchdown and two-point conversion to tie the game.

25-25. 

Despite Winnipeg scoring a field-goal on their opening possession of overtime, Dustin Crum was able to run in a touchdown to seal away a 31-28 win. 

Fans called it “The Crumback.” 

The momentum continued into the next week’s game against Calgary. Up 20-19 at the half, the Redblacks were constantly in the game and eventually pulled off a 43-41 win in overtime. That left the Redblacks sitting at 3-3 after seven weeks of play and heading home with plenty of confidence ahead of a big game against Hamilton. 

But unfortunately for Ottawa, all good things must come to an end. The magic could not be replicated against the Tiger-Cats, and the Redblacks were defeated 16-12. 

Four of their next six losses were one-score decisions, with the other two games being decided by 13 and 10 points respectively. In each of those four losses, the Redblacks had a lead at some point in the fourth quarter. This included their 41-37 loss to the BC Lions, which saw the Redblacks blow what was a nineteen-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. And despite a 36-28 win over the Saskatchewan Roughriders to snap the losing streak, much of the vibe around Ottawa that surrounded the two dramatic Dustin Crum wins was gone. 

And the average margin of defeat during that seven-game losing streak? Just over five points. 

While the Redblacks did end up losing three of their last four games by double-digits, winning any handful of those seven games could’ve easily changed the dynamic around Ottawa’s season. 

And still, things remain the same in Ottawa. In spite of this, the new coaching staff is given a second chance. 

2024: A far stronger start, but despite the success, another season of what could’ve been

The 2024 season saw Ottawa bring in a brand-new quarterback in the form of Dru Brown. On top of that, the Redblacks significantly changed the roster around to give their new starter the weapons he needed. 

While the new-look Redblacks took the first few weeks to get their act together, they were still 2-2 after that stretch, with late-game clutch plays sealing their two wins against Winnipeg and Hamilton. That said, their two losses were decided by an average of 17.5 points. 

But as the team started to get into a rhythm, the atmosphere around the team improved significantly. Three straight wins against Edmonton (in a home-and-home) and Calgary (a blowout 33-6 win), saw Ottawa to a 5-2 record and among the league’s best teams early in the season. Despite a controversial tie against Saskatchewan, the team kept rolling, earning another clutch win on the road against Calgary to put them at a 6-2-1 record. And despite being down 11-3 early at home against BC, and then again by a score of 17-12 at the half, a quick 64-yard touchdown pass to Nick Mardner gave Ottawa the lead. From there, they would never look back on their way to a 34-27 win (I was actually at this game). 

Their record at this stage? 7-2-1.

While a 38-12 thumping by the same BC Lions put a bit of a damper on the Redblacks’ hot start, a 41-27 victory over Toronto ensured that the vibes remained intact. 

But like in 2023, all good things must come to an end. 

The Redblacks went on a five-game losing streak that saw the team lose three of those five games by at least two scores (one of the two close losses did see a comeback attempt fall just short). Despite the losing streak, the Redblacks clinched their first playoff berth since 2018 during their Week 18 bye, and a season-finale win over Hamilton saw Ottawa earn their first winning season since that same 2018 campaign. 

Their final record? 9-8-1. For context, the 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasons saw Ottawa win just 14 times. They won nine games in 2024 alone. 

Despite a East Semifinal loss to the Toronto Argonauts, which was a 58-38 decision, the Redblacks had finally broken through after four seasons of misery. And more offseason additions, including the arrival of veterans like William Stanback and Eugene Lewis, put Ottawa in a position to contend for a home playoff game heading into the 2025 season. 

First stretch of 2025: More misery, injuries, and questions

That position would not last long. Despite a competitive 31-26 loss to open the season against the Saskatchewan Roughriders, the Redblacks lost starting quarterback Dru Brown to a hip injury. From that point, things spiralled out of control. Despite winning their Week 3 game against Calgary in what was a rainy affair, that was sandwiched by blowout losses to Montreal and Toronto. 

With Dru Brown returning before a game against Edmonton, things needed to turn around before the season was lost. And turn around they didn’t. Despite being in the game against Edmonton, the Redblacks had no answer for the Elks offence and the team fell to 1-4 as a result. And while the team held a lead heading into the fourth-quarter in the first of two straight games against Hamilton, that turned into a three-point loss that sent the team to 1-5. 

Their most recent loss? To those same Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Despite being down 10-0 early and losing quarterback Dru Brown to a head injury, the Redblacks rallied to make it a one-point game heading into halftime. However, the Tiger-Cats quickly scored a touchdown to gain some separation, and an interception off Dustin Crum seemingly gave all the momentum to Hamilton prior to the start of the fourth quarter. 

Enter Adarius Pickett. His interception off Bo Levi Mitchell allowed for Ottawa’s offence to cut the lead to just five points. But ten-straight points from the Tiger-Cats, alongside another interception, helped to seal the game away, sending the Redblacks to a 1-6 record entering their Week 8 bye. 

What’s next? Is the season salvageable? What needs to change? 

While a 1-6 record is certainly one that needs to be improved upon, especially at this stage of the season, it isn’t a death sentence just yet. The Redblacks are tied on points with the Toronto Argonauts and they sit six behind Montreal and Hamilton, though they did lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Tiger-Cats and they have yet to play their last two games against Montreal. They also sit just four points back of the BC Lions for the final playoff spot; it is worth noting that the Lions own this spot due to them having a superior record to the Toronto Argonauts, who sit at 1-5. 

That said, the next six games of Ottawa’s season will essentially determine if they have any shot at the playoffs. Here’s what those games look like:

Week 9: At home against Calgary

Week 10: On the road against Toronto

Week 11: On the road against Winnipeg

Week 12: At home against Edmonton

Week 14: At home against BC

Week 15: On the road against BC

Looking at these next six games, the three that the Redblacks must win are the two games against BC and the one game against Toronto. If the Redblacks can gain two points on BC, a split of that home-and-home might suffice. Even then, the Redblacks will seemingly have to go at least 4-2 in this stretch just to give themselves a fighting chance at the playoffs, especially with BC playing all four of their games before the Redblacks series against East Division opposition and with Toronto about to play a home-and-home against Winnipeg.

If they can go at least 4-2 in that stretch, then regardless of the result in Week 16 against Winnipeg, that sets up an incredibly crucial four-game slate to close the season:

Week 18: At home against Saskatchewan

Week 19: On the road against Montreal 

Week 20: At home against Montreal

Week 21: On the road against Hamilton  

Ideally, Ottawa would need to win both games against Montreal and beat Hamilton, meaning that they have to go 3-1 in this stretch. In all, Ottawa would have to go at least 7-4 just to give themselves a chance at making the playoffs; this would see the Redblacks finish with an 8-10 record. 

But to do that, the Redblacks will need a spark. Where is that spark going to come from? Firing Bob Dyce. 

At this point, Redblacks fans are going to call me crazy and say that injuries played a role in two of the Redblacks’ losses and that they were in a position to win one of the Hamilton games. 

To that I say this: if you’re going to build a winning culture in Ottawa, maybe win some games? 

While fans can understandably point their fingers at the team’s management, which falls under Ottawa Sports and Entertainment Group (OSEG), it’s clear that winning has not really been done in the first forty-seven games of Bob Dyce’s tenure. 

This is going to bring me to my favourite part of this rant: the numbers. Let’s start with Bob Dyce himself. Since Bob Dyce took the reins as head coach of the Ottawa Redblacks, he has only been able to muster a 15-31-1 regular season record. That means he has only won 32% of the games he has coached as head coach of the Redblacks. 

That said, of those 31 losses, 15 of them have been decided by more than one score. Six of those losses came last season when they clinched their first playoff berth since 2018. 

While the remaining 16 losses were one-score games, it is worth noting that four of those losses were the blown leads he oversaw midway through 2023. Another blown lead was overseen this season, with two others being comebacks that fell just short. And a late-season loss to Toronto last year also came in the form of a failed comeback attempt. 

So we’ve been able to effectively justify all but eight losses suffered under Bob Dyce’s leadership. Those remaining eight losses came via a combination of walk-off field goals and underwhelming offensive performances. 

Now let’s dive a little deeper. In the three losses Bob Dyce oversaw in 2022, the average margin of defeat was just under 5 points per game. Had Ottawa won those three games, they would be playoff-bound. 

To make matters worse, Ottawa had a halftime lead in the Montreal game and the first Hamilton game. 

In 2023, the average margin of defeat was just under nine points per game, equivalent to the point value of a touchdown, a two-point convert, and a single on the ensuing kickoff. This calculation can actually be divided into two distinct numbers; in the seven-game midseason losing streak, the average margin of defeat was just over five points per game. In the other seven losses, the average margin of defeat was over twelve points per game. 

Moving to 2024, the average margin of defeat for the Redblacks was 14.5 points per game. At the same time, the average margin of victory was just under eight points per game. 

And finally, thus far in 2025, the average margin of defeat is 10.5 points per game. 

While these averages suggest that games might have been decided by multiple scores, they also suggest that almost half of these games might have been decided by one score. That lines up pretty nicely with the margins we have seen throughout Bob Dyce’s tenure as the Redblacks’ head coach. And had the outcome of any number of those close losses or blown leads been reversed, we might be talking about a much-different story here. 

So with these margins justifying Bob Dyce’s firing, who would be next in line? One of the most obvious choices would be defensive coordinator William Fields; while his Redblacks defence is last in the league with 203 points against, it is by taking a deeper look that one can see the statistical impact of his work. Not only does linebacker Adarius Pickett rank second in the CFL in tackles with 44, but his teammate Jovan-Santos Knox also ranks among the league’s best in total tackles with 30 to his name. In addition, defensive lineman Bryce Carter is tied for fifth in sacks with three, while Adrian Frye is tied for the league lead in forced fumbles with three to his name. 

Another choice to take the label of head coach for the remainder of 2025? Former Redblacks coach Rick Campbell. While fans may attribute the struggles of the special teams unit to his work as special teams coordinator, he did coach this team to three Grey Cup appearances in its first five seasons of existence. The experience alone should be a factor in any decision to hire him as a future Redblacks head coach. 

While whatever goes on behind the scenes at TD Place is unknown to many, all of the above makes it clear that the Redblacks’ current struggles are nothing new. We’ve seen this film before. 

But this time, it’s up to team leadership to take advantage of the eleven day break before their next game and to make a change before things are truly lost once again. 

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Article written by Noah Guttman