2025 NFL Divisional Previews: AFC East

The Buffalo Bills may be favourites to win the AFC East once again, especially after adding wide receiver Elijah Moore and defensive end Joey Bosa. But could New England, or even the New York Jets, make the Bills’ quest to retain divisional glory that much harder?

Football is truly back.

With the 2025 NFL season just under a month away, I’m going to take the time to preview and predict each division. By outlining each team’s offseason transactions and season storylines, I hope to provide a clear picture of what the NFL’s divisions could look like this season. 

This first preview will focus on the AFC East, which could be in for a minor shakeup after New England and the New York Jets both brought in new head coaches, with the Patriots adding ex-Titans boss Mike Vrabel and the Jets adding former Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. 

Buffalo Bills:

2024 finish: 13-4, 1st in AFC East, 2nd seed in AFC Playoffs, lost to Kansas City in the AFC Championship game

This could arguably be Buffalo’s best shot at a Super Bowl.

Not only did they bring back Tre’Davious White to reinforce the defence, but they also added other defensive playmakers like defensive end Joey Bosa and defensive tackle Marcus Harris. On the offensive side of the ball, Elijah Moore brings some solid numbers and a major deep-ball presence to the Bills' receiving corps, while Josh Palmer brings experience playing with another talented quarterback in the form of the Los Angeles Chargers’ passer Justin Herbert. 

And with this being the final season that the Bills play at the iconic Highmark Stadium, Bills Mafia will be hungry to end their tenure at the stadium with at least an appearance in the big game. 

Their path to the 1 seed and a potential home AFC Championship Game? It’s an easy one. 

After a crucial Sunday Night Football game against Baltimore in Week 1, which also serves as a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional Round, Buffalo plays the Jets, Dolphins, Saints, Patriots, Falcons, and Panthers in succession, before a Week 9 encounter with Kansas City provides the potential for a shakeup in the regular season hierarchy. After a rematch with Miami, Buffalo plays Tampa Bay and Houston before taking on AFC North competition in the form of Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. They then head to New England and Cleveland before playing the Super Bowl-winning Philadelphia Eagles and closing the season against the New York Jets. 

In short, this is not only the deepest and most-experienced Bills squad that we have seen in recent years, but this is also one of the easier slates that they could have gotten. 

With Miami set for a make-or-break season and the New York Jets and New England Patriots entering their first years with new head coaches, Buffalo is primed to repeat as AFC East champions. While their three divisional opponents are going to be far from tough outs, I think Buffalo should be able to secure the division with relative ease. 

Projected finish: 14-3, 1st in AFC East

New England Patriots:

2024 finish: 4-13, 4th in AFC East

Despite finishing in last place in the AFC East last season, Patriots fans should feel optimistic coming into 2025.

The big reason? Mike Vrabel.

Personally, one of my favourite NFL head coaches, Mike Vrabe,l was hired by New England with only a few weeks elapsed into the offseason. Not only is he a former Patriots player, but he’s also great at establishing winning cultures. 

His biggest achievement? Taking a good-but-not-great Tennessee Titans roster to four consecutive winning seasons between 2018 and 2021, while making the playoffs in three of those seasons. Of those three seasons, Tennessee won the AFC South title twice, clinched the AFC’s 1 seed once, and advanced to an AFC Championship Game appearance in the 2019 season. 

Despite a rocky finish to his Titans tenure, Mike Vrabel heads into his first season with New England with the chance to bring a young and talented Patriots team from the depths of the AFC to playoff contention. 

To help quarterback Drake Maye in his second NFL season, New England added the likes of Garrett Bradbury to reinforce his offensive line, while bringing in veteran receiver Stefon Diggs as a means to give Maye a receiving corps. 

Considering that the latter helped bring Josh Allen and the Bills from bottom-feeders to contenders, it’s safe to say that, when healthy, Stefon Diggs could easily revolutionise this Patriots offence. 

Defensively, New England added the likes of Carlton Davis to reinforce what was a middle-of-the-pack defence in 2024, ranking 16th in the league. 

With the above stated, it’s not really a question of if the Patriots will improve, but by how much. To try and answer that, let’s consider their 2025 schedule. After opening against Las Vegas and Miami, New England plays a critical Week 3 game against Pittsburgh; considering the Steelers are going to once again be playoff contenders in 2025, this is a game the Patriots and their fans will have circled on their calendars. They then take on the Carolina Panthers before the first of two matchups with the Buffalo Bills. 

Following that Buffalo game, the Patriots enjoy four consecutive games against non-playoff teams (at New Orleans, at Tennessee, home vs Cleveland, home vs Atlanta), before travelling to take on Tampa Bay. That is followed by a critical matchup with the Jets, who could also see themselves as playoff contenders this season, before a matchup with Cincinnati closes out November. 

Despite starting December against the New York Giants, playing Buffalo and then Baltimore the following week could easily throw their playoff hopes off course. However, finishing the season against the Jets and Dolphins could help the Patriots to reorient themselves and put them in a position to clinch a playoff spot. 

While the Patriots were handed an easy first part of their schedule, it’s also the most important part of their schedule. Going 7-2 in their first nine games could easily set the tone for the rest of the season, but just straddling the .500 mark could significantly set the team back in the playoff race, especially if Cincinnati and Pittsburgh get off to hot starts. 

At the very least, the Patriots should be a far tougher out for the league, but when considering the moves the organisation made over the offseason, it's clear that they want to return to contention as soon as possible. Even if they don’t end up making the playoffs, they will come very close. I have this team earning its first winning record since 2021 and a second-place finish in the AFC East. 

Projected finish: 10-7, 2nd in AFC East

New York Jets:

2024 finish: 5-12, 3rd in AFC East

While the Aaron Rodgers experiment was a failed one for New York, fans should feel a little more optimistic about this season’s product for a few reasons.

Firstly, and I have been a firm believer in this idea for a few seasons now, the Jets roster is built to make the playoffs. While they did lose the likes of Davante Adams over the offseason, they did maintain a lot of their younger stars. Not only did they secure the likes of Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson to contract extensions, but they also got younger at the quarterback position, acquiring Justin Fields from the Pittsburgh Steelers. 

Secondly, Justin Fields is arguably the likeliest quarterback to resurrect his career over the course of a season. And each of the last two seasons has seen a previously-struggling or disgraced quarterback resurrect their respective careers. 

2023 saw Baker Mayfield revive his career with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers; after guiding them to a 9-8 record, an NFC South division title, and an appearance in the NFC Divisional Round, the former Oklahoma Sooner is now primed for a long-term tenure as the Buccaneers' signal-caller. 

In 2024, it was Sam Darnold who got the honours; after struggling to put up strong numbers in his first few NFL seasons as a member of the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers, the USC product put together a strong season where he threw for over 4000 yards and 35 touchdowns, while bringing the Minnesota Vikings to 14-3 record and a playoff appearance. 

With Justin Fields surrounded by a talented cast of playmakers and an improved offensive line, the former Chicago Bear and Pittsburgh Steeler might just have the best chance yet to prove he is capable of being an NFL starter. 

The big (sometimes seen as bigger) question: Can the new offence get New York to its first playoff appearance since 2010? 

The first few games and the final few games will be major indicators of that. Of the Jets’ first five games, two are against non-playoff teams from last season. The full five-game slate is as follows:

Home vs Pittsburgh

Home vs Buffalo

At Tampa Bay

At Miami

Home vs Dallas

While the Steelers have improved in their own regard, I could see the Jets claiming that game. And they should also beat at least one of the four other teams they play in the first five games. 

But going 1-4 to open the season? That could be costly, especially with Denver, Cincinnati, and Baltimore on the schedule over their next six games. 

However, their slate to end the season is quite doable:

Home vs Atlanta

Home vs Miami

At Jacksonville

At New Orleans

Home vs New England

At Buffalo

I could see the Jets going at least 4-2 here. 5-1 ideally. 

Schedule aside, at the very least, I think this is going to be the closest the Jets get to the playoff bubble. While they were 7-4 with six to play in 2022, they went on a six-game losing streak to close that season out.

I could see the Jets being a game or two out of the playoffs with two weeks left in the season. However, travelling to play Buffalo for the season finale does them no favours, and they will fall short of the playoffs once again. 

Projected finish: 8-9, 3rd in AFC East 

Miami Dolphins:

2024 finish: 8-9, 2nd in AFC East

For my discussion of the Miami Dolphins, I’m going to first list three takes:

1. The Miami Dolphins will start the season with at least a 2-2 record

2. The Miami Dolphins will then go 2-5

3. Mike McDaniel will be fired at the bye and Quinn Ewers will start multiple games

For the first take, this isn’t quite a hot take, but rather a cold-ish take. 

Miami’s first four games are against Indianapolis, New England, Buffalo, and the New York Jets. I believe Miami will win their opener against Indianapolis and either the New England game or the game against the Jets. While Miami gets the luxury of playing away to Buffalo early in the season, the Bills tend to start the season strong. And with Buffalo arguably the favourite to earn the AFC’s one seed, I cannot see how Miami wins that Week 3 encounter, regardless of how the first two games go. 

The second take is also a cold one, but likely the more realistic of the three. The Dolphins seven-game stretch leading up to their Week 12 bye is as follows: 

Week 5: At Carolina

Week 6: Vs Los Angeles Chargers

Week 7: At Cleveland

Week 8: At Atlanta

Week 9: Vs Baltimore 

Week 10: Vs Buffalo

Week 11: Vs Washington

While it is a doable schedule, I can only see a maximum of three wins for Miami: in Week 7 against Cleveland, Week 8 in Atlanta, and Week 10 in Buffalo. 

Carolina is set to potentially be a much better team once again, with Bryce Young entering his second season with head coach Dave Canales. The Chargers are set to once again contend for the playoffs, and they also have a decent record at SoFi Stadium. Baltimore is once again set to be a contender, while Washington will be looking to do the same in the NFC. 

Why did I choose the three games I did to represent the three times Miami might win in this stretch? Cleveland is set to be a dumpster fire regardless of who the starter is, Atlanta could either look like a playoff contender or a top-five draft pick contender, and Buffalo is coming off of a game against Kansas City. 

As for the third one, that’s a slightly hotter take. To address the first part of it, the Miami Dolphins have been seen as playoff contenders in each of the past five seasons (including the lead-up to 2025). 

In 2021, they went 9-8 and just missed the playoffs. 

2022 saw them finish with a similar 9-8 record, putting them barely inside the AFC playoff bracket as the 7 seed. Don’t let their success at getting to the playoffs fool you; the Dolphins only barely held on in the standings after going 1-5 to finish the season. And this came after the Dolphins acquired Super Bowl-winning wide receiver Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs. 

2023 saw them return to the playoffs as the AFC’s 6 seed. However, like the previous season, they collapsed. Heading into Week 11, the Miami Dolphins had a multi-game lead on the Buffalo Bills, who limped to a 5-5 record after an upset loss to the Denver Broncos. The Dolphins ended up losing that lead in the final week of the season, dropping their Week 18 game to the Buffalo Bills and their advantage for the division. 

2024? Just as bad, if not worse. After losing quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a concussion in Week 2, the Dolphins went 2-6 in their first eight games. Despite going 6-3 in the final half of their schedule, they would end up finishing two games behind the Denver Broncos for the final playoff spot. 

The common denominator? Three of those four seasons were overseen by head coach Mike McDaniel.

While the Dolphins would have either a 4-7 or a 5-6 record going into their bye based on my projections, that could easily see them at a disadvantage to Wild Card contenders like New England and Pittsburgh. This becomes especially true when considering that both of those teams have far easier slates to open the season. 

Should the Dolphins be multiple games back of those teams, the front office may want to make a statement to encourage better performances out of a talented but incomplete Dolphins team. 

That statement may be the firing of Mike McDaniel.

It could also entail benching Tua Tagovailoa for rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers. 

While the second part of this take is not likely to happen so long as the Dolphins are within reasonable striking distance of the playoffs, Quinn Ewers has impressed at camp, especially in terms of arm strength. And while Tua Tagovailoa should be the starting quarterback for Week 1, Ewers is slowly but surely establishing himself as a legitimate starting option should the Dolphins struggle off the line. 

The Dolphins did do a decent job reinforcing key positions across the roster, seen through the addition of linebacker Willie Gay Jr and wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. This, alongside the potential for bounce-back seasons from offensive playmakers like Jaylen Waddle, should keep the Dolphins competitive in 2025. 

However, if they can’t get wins together early, then there is a very good chance they will falter out of the playoff picture quickly. 

I can see Miami putting a few wins on the board early, but unless they are able to outperform contenders like Baltimore and Cincinnati, then I see this being a long season for the Dolphins. 

Projected finish: 5-12, 4th in AFC East

Projected AFC East standings:

1. Buffalo Bills (14-3)

2. New England Patriots (10-7)

3. New York Jets (8-9)

4. Miami Dolphins (5-12)

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Article written by Noah Guttman