2025 NFL Divisional Previews: AFC South

Despite major questions at running back to start the season, can the Houston Texans become only the second team to win at least three consecutive AFC South titles? Or will a revamped Jaguars squad with a new coaching staff take back the division?

The AFC South could easily be one of the more interesting divisions in the NFL this season. While the Houston Texans could find a way to dominate and retain their crown for the third-straight year, Jacksonville has a strong case to claim their second AFC South title in four seasons. With second-overall pick Travis Hunter bolstering both the offence and defence, alongside Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne embarking on their respective quests for bounce-back years, the Jaguars could take the division crown right off the heads of the Texans.

Elsewhere, could Cam Ward turn the Titans around quickly? Or will Indianapolis surprise once more?

Let’s break down the division team by team, while predicting where each of them will finish in the upcoming NFL season. 

Jacksonville Jaguars:

2024 finish: 4-13, 3rd in AFC South

Despite a two-year absence from the playoffs after a surprise run in 2022, Jaguars fans should have plenty to look forward to in Year 1 of the Liam Coen era.

The big news in Duval County? Travis Hunter is on his way to Jacksonville. The standout wide receiver/cornerback who played a significant role in the success of the Colorado Buffaloes in 2024 is now going to be quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s new teammate. 

While he is set to focus on playing wide receiver, he will also continue to play cornerback in his rookie season, something that could be of great benefit for the Jaguars. 

On top of that, outside of Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, much of the offensive cast is returning for Jacksonville as they look to reclaim their hold on the AFC South. 

Another thing that may be going in their favour? Their start to 2025 is both a doable and a critical one. After opening at home against the Carolina Panthers, the Jaguars travel to Cincinnati to play what should be a critical game with playoff implications (I say should as I am assuming the defence for the Bengals might actually play to their potential) before heading home to take on the Houston Texans in the first of two matchups. 

After playing San Francisco, the Jaguars play host to Kansas City. Then, after their week 8 bye, the Jaguars are set to play Tennessee and Indianapolis in four of their final six games, with games against the likes of Houston and Las Vegas to precede. 

I could see a way in which Jacksonville is able to hover around .500 before their final six-game stretch. And given that Houston has to play both Buffalo and Kansas City in two of their final seven games, getting to 5-6 or even 4-7 could allow Jacksonville to mount a late challenge in the division. 

I believe that the favourable schedule, combined with the optimism around Travis Hunter, should play huge roles in Jacksonville’s bounce back from last season. While it remains to be seen if it will actually grant them the division, I am going to give Jacksonville its third winning record in the last four seasons. This should be enough to (on paper) barely give Jacksonville the division crown. 

Projected finish: 9-8, 1st in AFC South

Houston Texans:

2024 record: 10-7, 1st in AFC South, lost in divisional round to Kansas City

The last team to win at least three-straight AFC South titles? Indianapolis. 

Between 2003 and 2006, the Colts would win the AFC South in five straight seasons, winning the Super Bowl during the fourth season. 

While Houston isn’t exactly on par to win a Super Bowl next season, they still have a good chance at becoming the first AFC South team to win three or more division titles in a row since that Colts team. 

A few problems: 

Firstly, star running back Joe Mixon could be out for the team’s season opener against the Los Angeles Rams. Even then, Mixon has frequently been hampered by injuries throughout his career; he missed several games last season and much of training camp because of knee issues.

The Texans also lost wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the New England Patriots; while the additions of Christian Kirk and Justin Watson should help to fill the hole, losing a receiver as experienced and as talented as Diggs will be a big blow for a Texans team looking to get to the AFC Championship Game and beyond. 

In terms of the offensive line, where to begin? The Texans traded Laremy Tunsil to Washington while cutting Shaq Mason, while building a completely new unit in its place. That unit will have to build chemistry quickly if they are to keep C.J. Stroud upright; doing so was a huge issue for Houston last season as C.J Stroud was the second-most sacked quarterback in the NFL in 2024.

All of the above is going to need to be addressed, and quickly. Opening against two of the NFC’s top contenders - Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Rams - is not the ideal way for that offensive line to get their first taste of action. Then comes a huge game against a Jacksonville team that opens against Carolina and Cincinnati; lose all three of the aforementioned games, and that’s already an 0-3 hole just three weeks into the season. 

I didn’t even mention that Houston plays Baltimore, Seattle, San Francisco, and Denver in consecutive order after a Week 4 game against Tennessee. And that’s before Round 2 with Jacksonville and matchups with Kansas City and Buffalo. 

If Houston is to win the AFC South once again, they have to get the offensive line going early, split their Week 5-8 stretch at worst, split with Jacksonville at worst, and beat one of Buffalo and Kansas City. 

While I discussed the first two points already, Houston is set to go into both Jacksonville games at a significant disadvantage; both games come after tough stretches - the first following games against Tampa Bay and LA, the second following their Week 5-8 stretch. 

I can see Houston becoming a force in the divisional race around the middle of the season, but until they can protect C.J. Stroud and they can prove the defence is legit, I think they will fall just short of the division title. 

Projected finish: 8-9, 2nd in AFC South

Tennessee Titans:

2024 record: 3-14, 4th in AFC South 

It’s a new era in Tennessee. 

The Titans drafted quarterback Cam Ward out of the University of Miami in last spring’s NFL Draft, while Mike Borgonzi - the former Chiefs assistant general manager - took over as the Titans’ general manager. 

To help their new quarterback, the Titans brought in a handful of brand-new receivers. Van Jefferson joined the team on a one-year deal, while Tyler Lockett signed a contract after being released from his deal with the Seattle Seahawks.

And with Tony Pollard and other offensive contributors like Calvin Ridley staying put, Cam Ward is being given a very strong foundation for his NFL debut this September. 

While the Titans have to play the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams to open the season, a fairly doable stretch - one that sees them take on Indianapolis (twice), in addition to Arizona, Las Vegas, New England, and Houston - follows the opening two weeks. That should be an opportunity for Cam Ward to get his first few NFL wins; it could also serve as an opportunity for Titans fans to gain some confidence in their newly-drafted quarterback and his offence. 

While the playoffs are still at least a season or two away for Tennessee, the future is bright for this organisation. And the Titans will start to take small steps back towards contention with a one-win improvement on their 2025 finish, while also moving up in the AFC South hierarchy. 

Projected finish: 4-13, 3rd in AFC South

Indianapolis Colts:

2024 finish: 8-9, 2nd in AFC South

Boy oh boy, are things not looking good for Indy.

While much of the roster from the past two seasons, both of which saw the Colts finish just outside the playoff picture, is still intact, the quarterback situation is complicated. With Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones locked in a training camp battle for the starting quarterback job, what the offence looks like heading into Week 1 is a big mystery. 

And even if they do find a solution at quarterback, the schedule isn’t that favourable. While games against Arizona and Las Vegas should represent some of the better opportunities at wins, that comes after the Colts play the Rams and Broncos in two of their opening four games. And then they play playoff contenders in eight of their final nine games. 

I will say that the Colts’ roster outside of the quarterback position is quite good. Should the quarterback play be decent like the past few seasons, I expect Indianapolis to win far more games than what I am going to project for them. 

But until the quarterback situation is resolved and consistency is seen from either Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson, I only see two or three wins on Indianapolis’ schedule. 

Projected finish: 2-15, 4th in AFC South

Projected AFC South standings:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)

2. Houston Texans (8-9)

3. Tennessee Titans (4-13)

4. Indianapolis Colts (2-15)

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Article written by Noah Guttman