Canadian Premier League Final Preview: With Forge FC out of the way, who will capitalize?

After another closely-contested season of Canadian league football, we have our two finalists: Atletico Ottawa and Cavalry FC. With the final set to be played this Sunday at Ottawa’s TD Place Stadium, I’ll be breaking down the matchup and analyzing the key factors that will decide the direction of this year’s North Star Shield.

(Image Credit to Atletico Ottawa)

Fun fact: this is going to be the first live professional football match I attend. The fact that it's a playoff final makes me all the more excited to write this preview.

Personal anecdote aside, after two thrilling semifinals, the Canadian Premier League is set to contest its 2025 playoff final. The final will see Cavalry FC, who are the current North Star Shield holders, travel to Canada’s capital to play Atletico Ottawa, who will be making their second Canadian Premier League Final appearance in four seasons.

With the final scheduled for Sunday evening in Ottawa, let’s set the stage ahead of the big game.

How they got here:

Over the course of the 2025 Canadian Premier League season, Atletico Ottawa has been one of the two most dominant teams in the league table. Losing just two games all year, Atletico finished just two points off of Hamilton’s Forge FC for first in the Canadian Premier League. Despite falling short of their second first-place finish in four years, Atletico were arguably the most dangerous side for much of 2025, leading the Canadian Premier League in goals scored with 54, while also avoiding defeat in every home match contested during league play.

Not only that, but they finally got over the hump that is Forge FC in the playoffs. While the team has been able to secure some results against the Hamilton-based side throughout their existence, playoff Forge has been a different beast. Before a 2-1 win in the semifinal, Atletico had been eliminated by Forge in each of their previous two playoff appearances.

On an individual level, it’s also been an incredible season for Ottawa’s team. Not only does Laval-born Sam Salter lead the league in goals scored with 20 (including playoffs), but Atletico Ottawa also has two players with more than five assists on the season. On the other end of the pitch, goalkeeper Nathan Ingham of Newmarket, Ontario, finished the regular season with eleven clean sheets to his name, second only to Jassem Koleilat of Forge FC. Toronto-native Noah Abatneh also earned himself a nomination for both Defender of the Year and Best under-21 Canadian of the Year; his case can be seen through his ten total tackles and a 96% passing accuracy.

Atletico Ottawa has also been one of the better sides defensively throughout 2025, giving up just 28 goals throughout the 28-game campaign and, impressively, just one penalty.

For Cavalry, despite finishing third in the Canadian Premier League, the gap to the top two has been quite apparent all season. Not only did the Calgary-based team finish fourteen points off of second and sixteen from first, but they had not beaten either Forge or Atletico Ottawa at all during the regular season. More relevant to this final, however, Cavalry earned a result in just one of their four matchups with Atletico Ottawa: a 2-2 draw on August 23rd at TD Place.

Individually, the story of Cavalry’s season has been its attack. Like Atletico Ottawa, Cavalry has three players in the league’s top ten in scoring, with two players (Tobias Warschewski and Ali Musse scoring more than ten goals). Ali Musse also finished second to Atletico Ottawa’s David Rodriguez in assists (the Somali winger had seven to his name). His teammate, Colombian-Canadian midfielder Sergio Camargo, finished just behind him with six to his name. In terms of goalkeeping, Calgary-native Sam Carducci has put up eight clean sheets throughout the season.

X-Factors:

Sam Salter (Atletico Ottawa):

In his three seasons with Atletico Ottawa, Sam Salter has been a consistent contributor on offence, scoring 31 goals over 83 regular-season appearances for the club. While he only got his first taste of playoff football in last year’s campaign, he played a big role in Atletico’s victory in this year’s semifinal against Forge FC, scoring what would be the winning goal in the 58th minute of play.

The Laval native has had his chances with Atletico Ottawa throughout his three-year tenure with the club, and he has taken advantage of all of them. With Sam Salter set to move to Sweden after the season ends, a Canadian Premier League Final victory would serve as the ultimate testimony to his contributions to the club and its success.

Tobias Warschewski and Ali Musse (Cavalry):

Over the course of last season’s run to the North Star Shield, Tobias Warschewski scored two of the three goals scored by Cavalry. The German forward kept the scoring up throughout the 2025 season, scoring eleven goals while adding five assists. His teammate Ali Musse also contributed to a similar extent in 2025, scoring ten goals while contributing seven assists.

If Cavalry is to have a shot at repeating as North Star Shield winners, the two players will have to be at the top of their game. Both should find ample opportunities to score, but it will be a matter of them getting the ball to the back of the net if they are to give their side a chance.

Final prediction:

While Cavalry is in a decent position to become the first team not named Forge FC to repeat as Canadian Premier League North Star Shield champions, this is arguably Atletico’s best shot at the North Star Shield since 2022, the last time they made the Canadian Premier League final. Not only has the team been one of the best, if not the best, all season long in most statistical categories, but this may be the best team they field. Sam Salter is set to leave the team for a stint in Sweden after the regular season, so the offensive output may take a significant hit heading into 2026.

Whoever puts out the better offensive performance will win this final. Outside of the 2-2 draw on August 23rd, Cavalry lost each of their games to Atletico Ottawa by multiple goals; keeping up with Atletico on offence will therefore be the utmost priority for the Calgary-based side. The one result Cavalry earned against Forge came as a result of two first-half goals by Ali Musse, so that first factor related to keeping pace with Atletico must be considered in conjunction with a fast start.

Considering all of the above, I see this being a fast-paced and competitive final. If Atletico Ottawa can survive the first half, they will be favoured to win, however if Cavalry can get off to a fast start like they did against Atletico on August 23rd, there is a decent shot that this final goes the distance or even the other way completely.

I’m going to lean towards Atletico Ottawa to get the win. Considering their shortcomings over the past few seasons, they are due for a title and they have the squad to finally get the job done. And with confidence at an all-time high after the semifinal win over Forge, there is a good chance Atletico Ottawa rides a raucous TD Place, one expected to welcome a strong crowd after opening up several north side sections for tickets. I expect both teams to find the back of the net multiple times, but I think Atletico’s attack will eventually overwhelm Cavalry’s defence and prevent the Calgary side from completing the title defence.

The pick: Atletico Ottawa 4, Cavalry FC 2

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Article written by Noah Guttman