NFL Thanksgiving Preview: A big divisional game in Detroit could decide the direction of the NFC North, while Dallas will look to strengthen their case for the playoffs

Following a crazy Week 12 in the NFL, the league’s Thanksgiving Day slate is set to kick off another big week of games. With all six teams in action set to play a role of some form in the playoff picture, each of the three games on tap are set to be must-see TV.

(Image Credit to the Winnipeg Free Press)

What a time to be an NFL fan. 

The parity is larger than ever, almost two-thirds of the league is at or above .500, and young upstart teams like the Chicago Bears and the Denver Broncos are looking to establish themselves in a constantly-changing NFL environment. 

But at the same time, traditional narratives must be upheld. The Bills beating the Chiefs in the regular season is one of these, while the Pittsburgh Steelers are currently completing the process of throwing away a lead in the AFC North for the second-straight year. 

Even then, we’ve reached Thanksgiving. With Week 13 marking the beginning of the final third of the regular season, teams will be looking to punch their ticket to the playoffs, while others will be looking to keep pace. 

In the case of the NFL’s Thanksgiving contestants for 2025, Detroit and Green Bay will both be looking to claim control of the NFC North and to put themselves on pace to clinch playoff berths. In the late afternoon, both Dallas and Kansas City will be looking to catch up with the teams currently in the playoff picture, while the evening game will essentially serve as the Cincinnati Bengals’ last chance to start a run at a playoff spot. 

Let’s take a look at each of the three games on tap.

Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) vs Detroit Lions (7-4): 

What are the Green Bay Packers?

That’s a question that will have to be answered this Thanksgiving afternoon against the Detroit Lions. While they are coming off of a dominant 23-6 win over the Minnesota Vikings, one where the defence stood out and dominated the Minnesota offence, the Packers have also put up some back-breaking and often logic-breaking results, including last-second losses to the Cleveland Browns in Week 3 and to a hard-to-read-but-good Carolina Panthers team. 

Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions are finding ways to put wins on the board despite the odds. Last time out, the Lions were able to reverse a ten-point deficit late against the New York Giants, forcing overtime and eventually winning after stopping the Jameis Winston-led offence on their overtime drive. Despite winning three of their last five, the Lions are still a relatively difficult team to read on their own; when they win, they win big. But when they lose, it’s either close or their offence won’t jump start at all. 

The Lions will be hoping that their offence will jump-start against a Packers defence that has been good for much of the season. The specific matchup to watch on Detroit’s offensive side of the ball is going to be Jared Goff and the running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs (a running back duo that has been given the nickname of Sonic and Knuckles) up against the Packers’ defensive line, one that is led by the likes of Micah Parsons and Isaiah McDuffie. If Jared Goff can’t quickly get to the downfield looks that have defined his success in head coach Dan Campbell’s offensive system, then he will have to lean on his running backs to break the pressure brought by the Packers’ defensive line. 

Defensively, Detroit will have to lean on its own defensive line to not only quell a run game that is led by running back Josh Jacobs (he was out for the Minnesota game, however he is slated for a Thanksgiving return against Detroit), but to put pressure on a Packers’ passing game that has been a bit of a roller coaster throughout the season. Despite beating the Vikings, Packers quarterback Jordan Love threw for just 139 yards in the win, with the run game and the defence carrying the load for Green Bay. 

That’s not all. While Green Bay has averaged well over twenty yards per game throughout the first six games of the season, with the Packers failing to crack the twenty-point mark just once, they’ve only cracked that margin twice over the past four games. On the other hand, Green Bay is undefeated when scoring more than twenty points in a game (they are 7-0-1 when doing so). 

Their three losses have come when failing to score more than twenty points. 

In terms of the big picture, the Chicago Bears lead the NFC North at 8-3 following a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, with Green Bay a mere half game back and Detroit a full game back. Whoever wins this game will assume temporary control of the division, so a win will be of the utmost importance for either team. 

In terms of a prediction for the first Thanksgiving Day game, I could see this game being a high-scoring affair. Packers quarterback Jordan Love tends to play better towards the end of the regular season, while Detroit’s offence, at its best, is one of the strongest in the league. 

This matchup could go either way, but I’m going to lean towards Jared Goff and the Lions to get their second consecutive win on Thanksgiving. 

The pick: Lions over Packers, 27-17

Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) vs Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1): 

The second of three Thanksgiving games sees two teams that essentially revived their respective seasons go head-to-head at the iconic AT&T Stadium 

Sitting at 5-5, Kansas City needed to beat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday in order to improve their position in the playoff race. A win would’ve left them level with Houston, who is the second team out of the AFC playoff picture as of this writing, while a loss would’ve left Kansas City at 5-6 and having lost the tiebreaker to four of the seven teams in the AFC playoff bracket. 

Despite trailing 20-9 in the fourth quarter, Kansas City was able to rally and force overtime, eventually beating the Colts 23-20 on a walkoff field goal. The win not only revives their hopes at making the playoffs, but it also gives them a much-needed tiebreaker in the case Indianapolis falls out of the top spot in the AFC South, a possibility that could become very real given that the Colts have the third-hardest slate to close out the season.  

In the case of the Dallas Cowboys, the team entered their Monday night game against the Las Vegas Raiders at 3-5-1 and sitting well outside the NFC playoff picture. After beating both the Raiders and then the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cowboys now sit at 5-5-1 and are just about two games back of the final playoff spot. While three of their final four games are against Minnesota, Washington, and the New York Giants - contests that could very well give them a late run into playoff contention - their next two come against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions. 

While beating the Chiefs on Thanksgiving will be a tall order, watching the Chiefs-Colts game does provide a little bit of a formula to beat Kansas City (to read more about it, stay tuned for my Anatomy of a Game article focusing on that same game). In short, Dallas will have to prevent the Chiefs from establishing the run game, one that will soon gain the services of ex-Texans running back Dameon Pierce, while also establishing their own in order to open up the playbook for Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, particularly on third-and-short situations. 

Another X-Factor takes the form of the Chiefs’ defence. Heading into the game against Kansas City, Indianapolis was perfect in goal-to-go situations (when a team is within ten yards of the opposing endzone). The Chiefs were able to keep Indianapolis from scoring on their third goal-to-go appearance of the game.   

Kansas City also succeeded in consistently stopping running back Jonathan Taylor; the second half saw the Colts struggle in getting into third-and-short situations, which eliminated the use of the run game from the third-down playbook and allowing for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to cook up some tasty defensive blitzes. 

Despite the defensive advantage lying with Kansas City, Dallas’ defence is riding a little bit of its own momentum. In the game against Las Vegas, the Cowboys were able to sack quarterback Geno Smith four times and force him into an interception, while also forcing a fumble. Despite giving up twenty-one points in the first half against Philadelphia, the Dallas defence looked a lot like it did against Vegas in the second half, giving up no scores while also forcing a missed field goal, a fumble, a muffed punt, and a sack that would give the Dallas offence the ball with a chance to go win the game. 

If that Dallas defence shows up against Kansas City, this could become a 50-50 contest. A slight advantage would still belong to Kansas City on defence, however, I give a small edge to the Dallas offence. 

While I could easily get burned on this, I’m backing Dallas to get the upset. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t looked the best all season, while Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have consistently been one of the league’s better units throughout the season, even ranking in the top five in many major statistical categories. Unless Kansas City finds an answer for the QB-TE duo of Dak Prescott and Jake Ferguson, which has been a boon for many fantasy teams (myself included), the Cowboys will win a closely-contested affair.

The pick: Cowboys over Chiefs, 24-20

Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) vs Baltimore Ravens (6-5): 

To start Joe Burrow or to not start Joe Burrow?

That is the question for a Bengals team that has gone 1-8 since losing their superstar quarterback to a turf toe injury. 

Over that span, they trotted out the serviceable-but-inconsistent backup Jake Browning, who went 4-3 and almost revived Cincinnati’s playoff hopes as the starter in 2023, in the hopes that his experience would keep the Bengals afloat until Burrow’s return. 

Simply put, it did not. 

They then traded for veteran quarterback and former Ravens starter Joe Flacco. Despite reviving the offence, he could only muster one win out of his first six games as a starter thus far. However, this is primarily of no fault of his own, as the Bengals’ defensive performance basically fell off a cliff following the first two games. It did look slightly better last week against New England, however, the Bengals still lost that game 26-20. 

That said, Cincinnati’s playoff hopes are still technically alive, as they sit three games back of Baltimore with two games still to play against their divisional rivals. In addition, the Bengals do have two divisional wins under their belt so far, while Baltimore still has to play both Cincinnati and the Pittsburgh Steelers twice. 

At the same time, Baltimore has all of the momentum coming into this game; the Ravens have won five straight and now lead the AFC North coming into a massive contest. 

Regardless of who the starter is for Cincinnati, a win would essentially bring the Bengals’ playoff hopes back to life. To do so, they will have to score early and often; this is especially important considering that the Ravens have struggled to get started in each of their last three games. In the first game against Minnesota, Baltimore scored just nine points against a good Vikings defence. The next week would see the Ravens score just ten points on a Browns defence led by the red-hot Myles Garrett, while they most recently scored a grand total of three points in the first half against the New York Jets. 

If the Bengals can step up and force another tough first half for the Baltimore offence, while also putting together a strong offensive performance of their own, they could establish a sizable lead heading into the half and hope to coast their way to victory. 

With FOX News’ Jay Glazer suggesting Joe Burrow could be back for this contest, any momentum Baltimore brings into this game via their win streak is essentially moot. With their playoff hopes basically on life support, I expect the Bengals to deliver a massive win and bring their season back to life before another massive contest in Buffalo. 

The pick: Bengals over Ravens, 30-23

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Article written by Noah Guttman © Noah Guttman 2025