Some CFL Thoughts at the Halfway Mark, and Some Week 11 Predictions

With six of the CFL’s nine teams at their schedule’s halfway points, it’s time to take a step back and analyse some of the key storylines emerging as the season hits the halfway mark. 

(Image Credit to Maggie Stemp- Turner/3DownNation)

After watching half a season’s worth of CFL football, I’ve been able to come to a few solid and not-so-solid takeaways and predictions for the immediate future and for the remainder of the 2025 regular season. 

And by incorporating recaps of each team’s first eight or nine games, I also treated this as a midseason summary of sorts for the 2025 season.

Are the Ottawa Redblacks back in the playoff mix? And is it over for Toronto?

After going into their bye 1-6, which prompted a very long but necessary rant on my part, the Redblacks have seemingly turned a corner. (To learn more about the Redblacks, read this article here https://www.therookiereporters.com/post/out-with-the-old-in-with-the-old-why-the-ottawa-redblacks-desperately-need-change) Their first win out of the bye was a 31-11 curbstomping of the former West Division leaders - the Calgary Stampeders - while their second was a comeback 46-42 win over the Toronto Argonauts. 

With Dru Brown and the offence finally getting going, and with the defence slowly but surely starting to find a groove, the Ottawa Redblacks have not only started to play to the potential displayed in 2024, but they also find themselves just two points back of the BC Lions for the final playoff spot. 

While they still have to play a spiralling-out-of-control Blue Bombers squad and a (hopefully) turning-the-corner Edmonton Elks side before the end of August, September opens with a home-and-home against the BC Lions. As long as they can stay within two points of the Lions, Ottawa can get away from that series with a split; anything less than a two-point gap and they will need to sweep. 

And not only that, but a home playoff game is in range. With Montreal losing two of the first three games of Davis Alexander’s injury absence, the Ottawa Redblacks are only four points back of Montreal for second in the East and the right to host a division semifinal. And with Davis Alexander likely out until after Labour Day Weekend, Ottawa has more than enough time to at least keep pace with Montreal before the two teams go head-to-head once more on Thanksgiving. 

While the season is only at its halfway mark, it's clear that if Ottawa is truly trying to turn the corner, they will be a force to be reckoned with down the stretch.

Is the West Division a race to the top … or to the bottom? 

For the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, nothing beats a Jet 2 holiday. 

Hopefully, you know the meme, but it certainly seems like the Winnipeg Blue Bombers are headed for disaster and/or an early holiday. 

Sitting at 4-4 heading into two crucial games pre-Labour Day is not the way to be feeling if you’re a Bombers fan. 

While the Montreal Alouettes, who Winnipeg plays on August 21st, are in a bit of a funk themselves, Ottawa (who plays Winnipeg this week) is riding a two-game winning streak and staring down the barrel of a favourable two-game stretch before their next bye. With the momentum on Ottawa’s side, Winnipeg will have to find a way to sweep both games if they are to keep pace with Saskatchewan. 

On the subject of Saskatchewan, the Roughriders are enjoying what is arguably their strongest start in several seasons. Sitting at 7-1 heading into a game against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats that could also serve as a Grey Cup preview, the Roughriders could mathematically secure a playoff berth by the time September kicks off. That could give them all the time they need to lock down the top spot in the West Division and to get their players rested and ready for a push for the Grey Cup.

So with Saskatchewan sitting pretty with a three-game cushion on Winnipeg, who has won the West Division’s top spot in each of the past four seasons, it’s clear the Bombers have to keep pace and then make up most of the gap on and around Labour Day Weekend, or else risk missing out on key playoff positioning. 

While the BC Lions, who sit at 4-5, currently occupy fourth place in the West Division, they also are level with Winnipeg on points (the Bombers own the tiebreaker) and occupy the final playoff spot. But with BC only able to make up the margins on Winnipeg, the Blue Bombers have been able to hold onto third place without much threat. 

That might not be for long though, as the Edmonton Elks could potentially pose a threat. Having either won outright or lost by less than a score in each of their three games played with Cody Fajardo under centre, the Elks have found some renewed life and, at 2-6, still have a realistic shot at the playoffs. 

As long as the Elks can at least split their next two games against Toronto and Ottawa, a split with Calgary in a home-and-home Battle of Alberta could suffice in terms of keeping their doors to the playoffs open. 

So is the West Division a question of who wants the playoffs more? Is Winnipeg seeing something in the divisional battles that no one else is and trying to exploit it? Or is this simply a race to the bottom?

I lean towards the second option. It’s clear that Winnipeg hasn’t been able to crack Vernon Adams Jr and Co out in Calgary, and it doesn’t seem like that will be the case for the Roughriders. With the fourth-place team in a given division earning a playoff berth if they finish better than the third-place team in the other division, it might or might not be far-fetched that Winnipeg could, if given the chance, take advantage of a weaker East Division and go on another deep playoff run. 

Some quick picks for Week 11:

Ottawa Redblacks (3-6) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers (4-4):

With the way things are working out, this could potentially be a huge game in the playoff battle. Ottawa only trails the BC Lions by two points for the final playoff spot, while Winnipeg could slip into the crossover if they lose this game and BC beats Montreal. 

If Ottawa is to beat Winnipeg, Dru Brown needs to continue to be at the top of his game and to stretch the Winnipeg secondary by using the passing game. 

With Terrell Bonds out for the rest of the season, and with the Winnipeg defence in a funk, I see Ottawa getting the upset win and putting themselves further into the playoff race. 

The pick: Redblacks 33, Blue Bombers 20

Toronto Argonauts (2-7) vs Edmonton Elks (2-6):

Toronto enters this game clinging to the playoff picture, while Edmonton is heading right into it. 

While the defences aren’t really playing to their best (I will give the Elks props for a good game against Montreal), both offences are playing good football. Nick Arbuckle has proven himself a decent replacement for Chad Kelly, while Edmonton’s Cody Fajardo has single-handedly willed Edmonton back into the playoff race. 

This game could go either way, but I think Edmonton will do that little bit more on defence to put the Argonauts away. And the Argos defence might just have their hands full against Cody Fajardo and Co. 

The pick: Elks 37, Argonauts 27

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (6-3) vs Saskatchewan Roughriders (7-1):

Despite losing last week to the BC Lions, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats enter this game still in control of the East Division. Meanwhile, Saskatchewan enters this potential Grey Cup preview with the chance to build a four-game lead on the four-time regular-season division-winning Winnipeg Blue Bombers. 

With both Bo Levi Mitchell and Trevor Harris playing some of their best football, this is going to be a high-scoring affair. I could easily see either team winning this, but I am going to lean towards Saskatchewan to get the win and to improve to 8-1. 

The pick: Roughriders 37, Tiger-Cats 35

Montreal Alouettes (5-4) vs BC Lions (4-5):

A year ago, after nine games, the Alouettes were 8-1. 

Now, after the same amount of time, they’re 5-4. 

And with the team currently on a two-game losing streak, they enter this contest against a red-hot BC Lions offence, which has scored 30 points or more in three of the last four games, at the worst possible time. With quarterback Davis Alexander likely out until after Labour Day, Montreal has been able to put good offensive games together but has struggled to put strong games together. That’s been the difference as they fell from 5-2 to 5-4. 

Unless McLeod Bethel-Thompson and the Alouettes can match BC’s offensive output, it could be a long night and a long trip back to La Belle Province. I see this game going exactly as suggested, with the BC Lions earning a dominant win to get back to the .500 mark and to potentially take third place in the West Division off of Winnipeg. 

The pick: Lions 35, Alouettes 17

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Article written by Noah Guttman